The Red Wings are less than a week away from training camp, and this weekend the rookies participated in the rookie tournament. Pretty soon battles will start for positions, new players will be formally introduced to the Red Wing-way, and pre-season games (real, honest-to-God hockey games) will be played. We're really going to start cranking these previews out, and today we look at an old rival who recently fell on hard times, but seems to be coming back to life. Maybe this will make the rivalry exciting again.
Colorado Avalanche
Arrivals: Daniel Winnik
Departures: Brett Clark; Darcy Tucker
The Dive. Even now, years later, I still loathe them. I realize that the Avs had fallen on hard times and that took some of the spice out of the rivalry between the two teams. However, last season the Avs, in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, surprised the hell out of everyone (including their own fans) and finished 8th in the West, earning a spot in the ultra-competitive playoffs. Their inexperience showed in their first-round matchup against the Sharks, but the Avs definitely seem to be a team on the rise.
Offense: The Avs are led on offense by Paul Statsny, who is quickly turning into their leader both on offense and on the team as a whole. He finished with 79 points in 81 games, and was their leading scorer. He is helped out by Calder-finalist Matt Duchene, who put forth an impressive rookie season with 24 goals and 55 points, enough to make him the leading rookie-scorer in the NHL, and give the Avs a solid second-line center. Mostly the Avs have a lot of young talent at forward, including Brandon Yip, TJ Galiardi and Ryan O'Reilly, all players who had good seasons last year which the team is hoping they will build on. Milan Hejduk is returning for another season, and if he can stay healthy for the entire season, then the Avs will have their best pure goal scorer available to contribute. The Avs are also hoping that Peter Mueller can continue his torrid pace that he set after his trade from the Coyotes late last year. The Avs don't get a ton of offense from their blueline, with John-Michael Liles and Kyle Quincey (man, it would be nice to have him back) being their leading defensemen scorers. The Avs finished 6th overall in goals for last year, so you can't sleep on them, as they can score with just about anyone on the team. Their PP is average, finishing 15th with a success rate of just over 18%. Overall, the Avs are a good offensive team, but given their youth, I question whether that can be sustained.
Defense: The Dive has a very underrated defensive corps, led by Liles and Quincey. They still have a holdover from the Fight Night days in Adam Foote, their captain and on-ice leader. His offensive skills are pretty much non-existent at this point of his career (not that he ever was a high-scoring guy), but he's a smart player who still has a physical side to his game. He may be a dirty idiot, but he's the best they've got. Like the offense, the defense is also fairly young, with only Scott Hannan being considered true "veterans". The defense finished 17th in goals against last season, but their team defense really trailed off towards the end of the season when the youth of the team showed. The Avs will be looking to improve a penalty kill that finished 21st in the NHL, although they were successful in killing off 80% of the penalties against them. The defense is good but not great, and would be the weak link on the team from my perspective.
Goaltending: Craig Anderson was signed as a free agent from Florida, and promptly set the NHL on it's ear with his October, where he was scorching hot. However, over the course of the season, his numbers really came back to Earth, and I think that was due to a combination of teams scouting him and seeing him more than once, and fatigue on his part due to the fact this was his first season as a full-time starter. He played in 71 games, and faced the most shots in the NHL while making the most saves. Considering his status as a first-time starter, his numbers were good, especially given the young team in front of him. From everything I remember about last season combined with what I've read about him from their fans, he was clearly the team's MVP and the Avs probably would not have made the playoffs without him. Backing him up is Peter Budaj, the Avs "goalie-of-the-future" who never played up to his potential, leading the Avs to seek out Anderson's services.
Coaching: Joe Sacco is a young coach who took over a young team, and he squeezed every last ounce of talent out of his team last year. He definitely is a coach that stresses offense, as the Avs went from being a lousy offensive team to a high-scoring one. The team allowed the most shots in the NHL last season, and team defense does not seem to be stressed nearly as much as the offense is. I did notice in the few games that I watched that the Avs are an extremely fast team (owing partially to their youth), and they use that speed to gain an advantage on their opponents. They are not a very physical team, preferring to use their speed and skill over size. He had a free pass last year since it was supposed to be a re-building year, but this year the team will be expected to take another step forward.
Player to Watch: Matt Duchene burst onto the scene last year as a rookie, leading all rookies in points with 55 and tying for the rookie lead in goals with John Tavares at 24. What's impressive is that he finished +1 on a mediocre defensive team, and he saw some PK time. Duchene seems to be the real deal, and with some experience, he's going to become a dynamic player in the league. Don't ask me why, but I feel like that there will no sophomore slump from him, and he will build on these numbers.
Player With Something to Prove: Craig Anderson entered the season last year as a relative unknown, but after his October, there were some who considered him an early candidate for the Vezina. As the season progressed, however, he really came down to Earth, and his solid stats don't really tell the tale of how remarkedly different his season was between the first half and second half. As I said earlier, he was the main reason why the Avs made the playoffs last year, and if he takes a step backwards this season, the Avs could find themselves on the outside looking in once again. I think that Anderson needs to show the team and the NHL that he is a legitimate #1 goalie who can carry a team year-in and year-out.
Why They Can Win the Division: The Avs only finished 8 points behind the Canucks last season in the division, although they were in the mix for most of the season. The team seemed to have hit the collective wall towards the end of the season, although that was not unexpected due to how young the team is. The Avs pretty much kept their team intact, only losing Brett Clark and Darcy Tucker, 2 players who did not really contribute much to the team. In fact, with Tucker leaving, the Avs' "idiot-ness" has decreased significantly. If the young players on the team continue to develop in a positive fashion, and the veterans like Hejduk and Foote can stay healthy, the Avs could conceivably give the Canucks a run for their money in the division.
Why They Won't Win the Division: A lot of what the Avs do this season is going to hinge on whether Anderson can stay at the level he was at for most of the year last year, and whether their young players can continue their positive development with no setbacks. If either one of these things don't happen, the Avs will find themselves looking up at the Canucks once again.
My Prediction: I think the Avs are going to take a step back this season. I think there are too many "ifs" surrounding the team, especially around their young forwards and their development. I believe that some of them (especially Duchene) will be better, but to expect each and every one of their players to play as good or better as they did last year is a little too much to expect. Between the overall lack of elite talent on the Avs and the hyper-competitiveness of the West, the Avs have no margin for error, and I just don't see them getting better this year. I think they'll narrowly miss the playoffs, but the experience will be good for them. I will also guarantee that I will froth at the mouth if the Wings lose to them, because even though 90% of the players that made up the rivalry are gone, I still hate them. I want the Wings to beat the Avs every time, and beat them badly. Anything less than 4-0 against them makes me very upset.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Friday, September 10, 2010
Know Thy Enemy - Calgary Flames
We're a week away from Training Camp, and I'm getting giddy. Giddy in the sense that I will finally have something to watch on TV besides The Office reruns and baseball teams I don't care about. While the NFL season is fun for me (mostly because I gamble on it), nothing compares to the start of the NHL season; when every team believes they have a legitimate shot at winning the Stanley Cup (except the Leafs, who will never win again).
We are moving on to a team that has had high aspirations but not lived up to them the past few years. We head north into Alberta for today's preview.
Calgary Flames
Arrivals: Alex Tanguay; Olli Jokinen; Tim Jackman
Departures: Eric Nystrom; Christopher Higgins; David Van Der Gulik
The Flames were a team expected to really contend in the Western Conference last year, but after hanging around in the playoff race for most of the season, they fell apart late in the year and finished a disappointing 9th, tied with the Blues 5 points out of a playoff spot. The Flames went through an interesting transition last year, trading away Dion Phaneuf in the middle of the season, but overall they really struggled under new coach Brent Sutter. The Flames are hoping that some old faces will be able to re-energize a moribund offense from last year.
Offense: This is the area the Flames really struggled with last year, finishing second last in the NHL in total offense. The team is led by former Rocket Richard Trophy-winner Jarome Iginla, their captain and team leader, but once again the Flames are hoping that they can find a center that can properly maximize Iginla's talents. I've always liked Iginla, minus the series in 2007 against the Wings when he went super-stupid a la Shane Doan. The Flames are hoping they found that center in Olli Jokinen, a stud in Florida who has failed to live up to expectations in both his first go-round with Calgary and a stint in New York with the Rangers. The Flames are hoping that Jokinen will not have as much pressure on him this season, and that he and Iginla can form some sort of dynamic duo. The Flames also brought in another re-tread, Alex Tanguay, who had an awful season last year in Tampa. He will be united with Matt Stajan, a former Toronto prospect (get ready for this theme throughout this preview) who never lived up to his potential and was included in the Phaneuf deal last year. The Flames are hoping that the bad years these guys have had are in the past, and that they will finally get to where they are capable of in terms of scoring. A pleasant surprise for the Flames last year was Rene Bourque, who put up career highs in goals (27) and points last year (58), and the hope is that he will team up with Jokinen and Iginla to form a very dangerous first line. Outside of that top line, the Flames will be leaning on Daymond Langkow, Craig Conroy and Alex Kotalik to chip in with scoring. On the blueline, Ian White (another former Leaf) came over and immediately became a contributor, but the Flames will be looking for Jay Bouwmeester to justify the trade and sign deal they made with him last year. It was hoped that once Bouwmeester was surrounded by some real talent, he would shine, but he really disappointed a lot of people, including Steve Yzerman, who left him off the Team Canada Olympic Team. Ultimately, if the Flames are going to do anything in the Western Conference, their offense needs to get immensely better.
Defense: Despite the loss of Dion Phaneuf, the Flames still have one of the better, albeit underrated, defensive corps in the conference. They are led by Bouwmeester, one of the best skaters in the NHL and a big body back there. He's more like Lidstrom in that he is not a very physical defenseman, but he's smart and rarely makes killer mistakes. If his offense picks up, he could be an All-Star this year. Also contributing is Ian White, who is more of an offensive defenseman and will be looked to pick up and improve the power play. Mark Giordano is a physical defenseman with good puck skills, and he has steadily gained playing time and an increased role on the team. Cory Sarich and Steve Staios are the veterans on the blue line, and while neither contributes much offensively, they are both steady defensemen who can play against the other team's 3rd and 4th lines. The Flames currently have Robyn Regehr as well, but I've heard rumours that he may be on his way out. If he does stay on the team, he immediately makes the second pairing better, as he is a very physical guy who plays with an edge.
Goaltending: The Flames live and die with Mikka Kiprusoff. All Kipper did last year was play in his customary 70+ games, in which he put up a 2.31 GAA and a .920 SV% while winning 35 games. Whatever problems the Flames have, it's not in goal, as Kiprusoff has always been among the best goalies in the NHL. If he ever sustains a serious injury, the Flames are going to be in some serious trouble. You'll notice that I am not mentioning their backup goalie; 1, I don't know exactly who it is, and 2, it doesn't matter because he's going to play less than 10 games anyway.
Coaching: Brent Sutter, brother to GM Darryl Sutter, is in his second season with the Flames after he had walked away from the Devils. Sutter coaches the way he played: tough, hard, and with little finesse. He has been successful at all levels, especially in junior where he won a Memorial Cup (just as hard to win as a Stanley Cup given that there is a very small window and far more teams) and 2 World Junior Championship Gold medals for Canada. Last year was an aberration for him in terms of his team's success, and with an influx of talent coming to camp this year, Sutter should have more to work with.
Player to Watch: Jarome Iginla has been one of the premier power forwards in the NHL, capable of scoring 50 goals or pounding the crap out of just about anyone in the league. However, he has not had a consistent center that can feed him the puck, so his goal totals have been up and down for the past couple of seasons. With Olli Jokinen back in town, the potential is there that Iginla could get back to the 40-50 goal range, and again establish himself as one of the pre-eminent right wingers in the league. If he gets back to where he was 3-4 years ago, it will go a long way to getting the Flames back to contender status in the West.
Player With Something to Prove: Jay Bouwmeester was always known as a guy who was a great player on a bad Panthers team. It was long thought that once he was surrounded by talent, his skills would really be showcased and he would become one of the top teams in the league. The Flames traded for his rights before last season and signed him to a big deal, and he promptly went out and had probably his worst season as a pro. With Dion Phaneuf gone and Bouwmeester entering his prime, it's time for him to step up and show the league that his hype was deserved. He's got the physical abilities necessary to be a top defenseman; now it's about showing it on the ice.
Why They Can Win the Division: They've got the goaltending to go toe-to-toe with anyone in that division (Luongo definitely included). Their defensive corps is solid if unspectacular, and the Flames have traditionally been one of the more physical teams. If they can turn around that awful offense and score some goals, they could easily contend for the division with the Canucks.
Why They Won't Win the Division: My brain keeps telling me that at some point Kiprusoff's body is going to rebel against the team for playing him over 70 times per year, and this could be that year. If he gets hurt, forget about it; they're done. I also am not sold on the fact that Jokinen and Tanguay are somehow going to resurrect their careers in Calgary after having terrible seasons last year. If the offense doesn't improve, the Flames will once again be looking up at everyone else in the conference.
My Prediction: I think the Flames really underachieved last year, as they should have been a playoff team given the talent they had. However, they removed a big locker room distraction when Dion Phaneuf was traded to the Leafs, and this year the theme of the Flames is going to be "Fresh Starts". I don't believe the Flames are Stanley Cup contenders, but I also don't believe they are as bad as they showed last year. I see them as a playoff team this year, and with Kipper leading the way, they could make some noise in the early rounds. However, I don't see a huge future for this team the way they are currently constituted, and it seems like they are floundering. I will say this: the Sea of Red is one of the coolest things I have ever seen. I just hope I don't have to see it because the Wings are playing them in the playoffs: I hate the late games.
We are moving on to a team that has had high aspirations but not lived up to them the past few years. We head north into Alberta for today's preview.
Calgary Flames
Arrivals: Alex Tanguay; Olli Jokinen; Tim Jackman
Departures: Eric Nystrom; Christopher Higgins; David Van Der Gulik
The Flames were a team expected to really contend in the Western Conference last year, but after hanging around in the playoff race for most of the season, they fell apart late in the year and finished a disappointing 9th, tied with the Blues 5 points out of a playoff spot. The Flames went through an interesting transition last year, trading away Dion Phaneuf in the middle of the season, but overall they really struggled under new coach Brent Sutter. The Flames are hoping that some old faces will be able to re-energize a moribund offense from last year.
Offense: This is the area the Flames really struggled with last year, finishing second last in the NHL in total offense. The team is led by former Rocket Richard Trophy-winner Jarome Iginla, their captain and team leader, but once again the Flames are hoping that they can find a center that can properly maximize Iginla's talents. I've always liked Iginla, minus the series in 2007 against the Wings when he went super-stupid a la Shane Doan. The Flames are hoping they found that center in Olli Jokinen, a stud in Florida who has failed to live up to expectations in both his first go-round with Calgary and a stint in New York with the Rangers. The Flames are hoping that Jokinen will not have as much pressure on him this season, and that he and Iginla can form some sort of dynamic duo. The Flames also brought in another re-tread, Alex Tanguay, who had an awful season last year in Tampa. He will be united with Matt Stajan, a former Toronto prospect (get ready for this theme throughout this preview) who never lived up to his potential and was included in the Phaneuf deal last year. The Flames are hoping that the bad years these guys have had are in the past, and that they will finally get to where they are capable of in terms of scoring. A pleasant surprise for the Flames last year was Rene Bourque, who put up career highs in goals (27) and points last year (58), and the hope is that he will team up with Jokinen and Iginla to form a very dangerous first line. Outside of that top line, the Flames will be leaning on Daymond Langkow, Craig Conroy and Alex Kotalik to chip in with scoring. On the blueline, Ian White (another former Leaf) came over and immediately became a contributor, but the Flames will be looking for Jay Bouwmeester to justify the trade and sign deal they made with him last year. It was hoped that once Bouwmeester was surrounded by some real talent, he would shine, but he really disappointed a lot of people, including Steve Yzerman, who left him off the Team Canada Olympic Team. Ultimately, if the Flames are going to do anything in the Western Conference, their offense needs to get immensely better.
Defense: Despite the loss of Dion Phaneuf, the Flames still have one of the better, albeit underrated, defensive corps in the conference. They are led by Bouwmeester, one of the best skaters in the NHL and a big body back there. He's more like Lidstrom in that he is not a very physical defenseman, but he's smart and rarely makes killer mistakes. If his offense picks up, he could be an All-Star this year. Also contributing is Ian White, who is more of an offensive defenseman and will be looked to pick up and improve the power play. Mark Giordano is a physical defenseman with good puck skills, and he has steadily gained playing time and an increased role on the team. Cory Sarich and Steve Staios are the veterans on the blue line, and while neither contributes much offensively, they are both steady defensemen who can play against the other team's 3rd and 4th lines. The Flames currently have Robyn Regehr as well, but I've heard rumours that he may be on his way out. If he does stay on the team, he immediately makes the second pairing better, as he is a very physical guy who plays with an edge.
Goaltending: The Flames live and die with Mikka Kiprusoff. All Kipper did last year was play in his customary 70+ games, in which he put up a 2.31 GAA and a .920 SV% while winning 35 games. Whatever problems the Flames have, it's not in goal, as Kiprusoff has always been among the best goalies in the NHL. If he ever sustains a serious injury, the Flames are going to be in some serious trouble. You'll notice that I am not mentioning their backup goalie; 1, I don't know exactly who it is, and 2, it doesn't matter because he's going to play less than 10 games anyway.
Coaching: Brent Sutter, brother to GM Darryl Sutter, is in his second season with the Flames after he had walked away from the Devils. Sutter coaches the way he played: tough, hard, and with little finesse. He has been successful at all levels, especially in junior where he won a Memorial Cup (just as hard to win as a Stanley Cup given that there is a very small window and far more teams) and 2 World Junior Championship Gold medals for Canada. Last year was an aberration for him in terms of his team's success, and with an influx of talent coming to camp this year, Sutter should have more to work with.
Player to Watch: Jarome Iginla has been one of the premier power forwards in the NHL, capable of scoring 50 goals or pounding the crap out of just about anyone in the league. However, he has not had a consistent center that can feed him the puck, so his goal totals have been up and down for the past couple of seasons. With Olli Jokinen back in town, the potential is there that Iginla could get back to the 40-50 goal range, and again establish himself as one of the pre-eminent right wingers in the league. If he gets back to where he was 3-4 years ago, it will go a long way to getting the Flames back to contender status in the West.
Player With Something to Prove: Jay Bouwmeester was always known as a guy who was a great player on a bad Panthers team. It was long thought that once he was surrounded by talent, his skills would really be showcased and he would become one of the top teams in the league. The Flames traded for his rights before last season and signed him to a big deal, and he promptly went out and had probably his worst season as a pro. With Dion Phaneuf gone and Bouwmeester entering his prime, it's time for him to step up and show the league that his hype was deserved. He's got the physical abilities necessary to be a top defenseman; now it's about showing it on the ice.
Why They Can Win the Division: They've got the goaltending to go toe-to-toe with anyone in that division (Luongo definitely included). Their defensive corps is solid if unspectacular, and the Flames have traditionally been one of the more physical teams. If they can turn around that awful offense and score some goals, they could easily contend for the division with the Canucks.
Why They Won't Win the Division: My brain keeps telling me that at some point Kiprusoff's body is going to rebel against the team for playing him over 70 times per year, and this could be that year. If he gets hurt, forget about it; they're done. I also am not sold on the fact that Jokinen and Tanguay are somehow going to resurrect their careers in Calgary after having terrible seasons last year. If the offense doesn't improve, the Flames will once again be looking up at everyone else in the conference.
My Prediction: I think the Flames really underachieved last year, as they should have been a playoff team given the talent they had. However, they removed a big locker room distraction when Dion Phaneuf was traded to the Leafs, and this year the theme of the Flames is going to be "Fresh Starts". I don't believe the Flames are Stanley Cup contenders, but I also don't believe they are as bad as they showed last year. I see them as a playoff team this year, and with Kipper leading the way, they could make some noise in the early rounds. However, I don't see a huge future for this team the way they are currently constituted, and it seems like they are floundering. I will say this: the Sea of Red is one of the coolest things I have ever seen. I just hope I don't have to see it because the Wings are playing them in the playoffs: I hate the late games.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Know Thy Enemy - Minnesota Wild
We got some good news and some completely unsurprising news yesterday. The good news is that Kirk Maltby signed a two-way contract, which will see him paid $525K if he stays with the Wings of $105K if he ends up in Grand Rapids. Being a two-way contract, he will be able to be sent down to the AHL without having to clear waivers. I dig this signing, and not just because Malts is one of the few remaining throwbacks to the first Cup team in 1997. The chances of him making the Wings as a full time player are between "slim" and "no chance", which is a bummer. But, he will be able to go down to Grand Rapids and teach the young guys down there what it takes to be a successful NHLer. Plus, once the playoffs roll around, the Wings can call him up to play if necessary, or just be a positive locker room presence. Either way, it looks like Malts is going to end his career as a Wing, which means that all is right with the world.
In the "unsurprising" move, Derek Meech cleared waivers, cleleared waivers, meaning that if he does not earn a spot on the team after training camp, he'll likely be sent down to Grand Rapids without having to clear waivers again. This was "unsurprising" because the Wings have their top-7 defensemen set, which is his natural position, and there's already too many forwards, so there's just nowhere for him to play. I can't say that I'll miss Meech, because his contributions to the team over the years have been extremely minimal.
We continue our look at the Northwest Division with a team that flies under the radar for a lot of us (at least me, anyway). I don't watch this team often, so I'm going strictly off of my impressions of the roster. Without further ado, let's check out the opponents for the first H2H game.
Minnesota Wild
Arrivals: Matt Cullen; John Madden; Eric Nystrom
Departures: Derek Boogaard
The Wild have really flown under the radar for the past few years. According to NHL.com's 30 in 30 preview, the Wild have missed the playoffs 3 out of the last 5 years, and didn't do much in either of their 2 appearances since the lockout. The Wild have been known as a defensive team for many years due to Jacques Lemaire being their head coach, but last year saw a change in philosophy as they tried to inject some offense. The Wild have been one of those "you know they're in the NHL but don't really know anything about them" teams for me.
Offense: Like a lot of these middle-of-the-road teams, the Wild don't boast a true offensive "superstar". They have a few good players, led by their new captain, Mikko Koivu, a bigger version of his brother. Koivu has decent skills, but isn't an offensive dynamo just yet. He will be expected to lead the team both in the dressing room and on the ice. A quick check of their roster tells me that their best offensive player is probably Martin Havlat, but he had a really disappointing season last year and will be looking to bounce back. The Wild got great contributions from Guillaume Latendresse after his trade from the Canadiens, and he will be expected to keep up close to that production over the course of the entire season. The Wild are also hoping that Matt Cullen and Eric Nystrom will be able to step in the lineup and produce some offense, especially Cullen who is expected to center the second line between Havlat and Latendresse. The Wild are also hoping for some decent contributions from Andrew Burnette, who kicked in 61 points last year and was a thorn in the Red Wings' side. One player to keep an eye on is Pierre-Marc Bouchard, who only played 1 game last year due to a concussion but should kick in some depth scoring. The big blow to their offensive hopes was the loss of Derek Boogaard, but hopefully someone can step up and fill the void in the offense that his departure left. The Wild are not particularly big up front, and will be relying more on skill and speed than at any other time in their history to date. They also don't get a lot of offense from their blueline, with their biggest threat being Marek Zidlicky, who quarterbacks their power play. The Wild finished 22nd in the NHL last year in team offense, and that number will have to get higher if they want to compete in the Western Conference. One area that doesn't need a lot of work is their power play, which finished 10th in the NHL, a tenth of a point behind the Wings at 19.1%. Any time you can be top 10 in one area of special teams, you're doing well.
Defense: Even though there has been a change in coaching, the Wild still boast a strong defensive unit that doesn't have a real "stalwart", but is solid 1 through 6. The defense is led by Zidlicky and Greg Zanon, a former Predator who most Red Wing fans know as the idiot that yelled "five hole!" at Hasek during the Wings-Preds series in 2008 (by the way, how did that series turn out for you, Zanon? Dick). As much as I dislike him, he's a good defensive defensman who tends to be a smart player. Their second pairing consists of Cam Barker, who never lived up to his potential in Chicago, and Brent Burns, who always makes me thing of that Seinfeld episode where they talk about Alec Burns. Again, a solid if unspectacular pairing. The third pairing has Nick Schultz, a guy who likes to throw his body around, and Clayton Stoner (insert your own joke here). Up front, the Wild signed John Madden, a guy who has been one of the better two-way centers in the last 10 years, and who will contribute defensively. The Wild are not a particularly big team, but do have one of the NHL's big hitters in Cal Clutterbuck, another guy with a great name. The Wild finished 21st in the NHL last year in team defense, a position that is not normal for them. They finished 14th in penalty killing, a decent place but not great. The Wild will definitely be looking to get back to "old-time Wild hockey" next year.
Goaltending: The Wild boast one of the better 1-2 punches in net in the NHL with Nicklas Backstrom (the goalie) and Josh Harding. Backstrom is another of the Finnish goalies that have taken the NHL by storm, and he has consistently put up decent numbers. Last year saw his GAA go up and his save percentage go down, but both stats were good. However, for a team that struggles to score, the goalies need to be better than other teams, and last year both Harding and Backstrom struggled at times. In fact, both of them had their worst year statistically last season, which greatly contributed to the Wild's plunge down the defensive ranks. Both Backstrom and Harding have the potential to be strong contributors, and the Wild will be hoping that last year was a fluke for both of them. If they can get back to where they normally are, the Wild will be vastly improved.
Coaching: After years of boring the shit out of the entire NHL, Jacques Lemaire left the Wild before last season and made way for Todd Richards. Richards came in and attempted to remove the shackles from the team, and it's obvious they were less successful defensively, but there was no real improvement offensively, either. However, everything I've read about him suggests that he is interested in making the team better on offense while maintaining discipline on defense. I think now that he's had an infusion of talent into the team, we'll really see what he is capable of. He has enjoyed success at both the AHL and NHL level, getting the W-B/Scranton Penguins to the AHL Finals in 2008 (where they lost to the local Chicago Wolves), and as an assistant coach for the Sharks when they won the President's Trophy in 2009. He seems to be a good young coach and they are expecting him to lead them up the standings.
Player to Watch: It's really hard to say since I don't know the team that well. But the little bit that I have seen and read about tells me that Mikko Koivu is one of the real underrated stars in the league, and this could be a breakout season for him. His offense has steadily gotten better the past 3 years, and at 27, he's entering his prime. I know from the little I have seen of him that he is a big body with good hands, and he uses his size to his advantage to get to areas where he can score. He also seems to be developing a defensive side to his game, and as the first official permanent captain of the Wild, he's going to be looked to as their leader. This could be a real breakout year for him, and we could be talking about him as one of the better players in the NHL by the time this season is over.
Player With Something to Prove: Martin Havlat was brought in last year to be boost an offense, but he really fared poorly, only going for 54 points a year after getting 77 with the Blackhawks. He said some pretty harsh things about the Hawks organization when he left (who can blame him), but if you're going to badmouth your former employer, it's probably a good idea that you, you know, produce. On the upshot, he did manage to stay healthy for the second straight year, but if the Wild want to do anything this year, he needs to be their primary goal scorer and pick up where he left off after he came over from the Hawks.
Why They Can Win the Division: They don't have a ton of offense, but those goalies (especially Backstrom) are enough to keep the Wild in games this year. If their new arrivals can kick in some scoring and the defense plays up to their potential, the Wild could be competitive in a fairly weak division.
Why They Won't Win the Division: Even if the goalies improve and the defense plays the way they can, there's just not a ton of scoring there, and with teams like Colorado getting a year older and more experienced and Vancouver still appearing to be the class of the division, it will probably be tough sledding once again for the Wild.
My Prediction: The Wild still don't have the horses to make them a playoff team in the Western Conference. I think Mikko Koivu is going to have a big year (and I might just draft him in my fantasy hockey league), but outside of that, I don't think the Wild are going to be able to score with the top teams in the conference. I think Backstrom will bounce back and have a good year, and I think their defense is going to be good. Overall, however, I just don't see the Wild being able to compete over the course of the entire season, and they are going to finish in the bottom half of the conference again.
In the "unsurprising" move, Derek Meech cleared waivers, cleleared waivers, meaning that if he does not earn a spot on the team after training camp, he'll likely be sent down to Grand Rapids without having to clear waivers again. This was "unsurprising" because the Wings have their top-7 defensemen set, which is his natural position, and there's already too many forwards, so there's just nowhere for him to play. I can't say that I'll miss Meech, because his contributions to the team over the years have been extremely minimal.
We continue our look at the Northwest Division with a team that flies under the radar for a lot of us (at least me, anyway). I don't watch this team often, so I'm going strictly off of my impressions of the roster. Without further ado, let's check out the opponents for the first H2H game.
Minnesota Wild
Arrivals: Matt Cullen; John Madden; Eric Nystrom
Departures: Derek Boogaard
The Wild have really flown under the radar for the past few years. According to NHL.com's 30 in 30 preview, the Wild have missed the playoffs 3 out of the last 5 years, and didn't do much in either of their 2 appearances since the lockout. The Wild have been known as a defensive team for many years due to Jacques Lemaire being their head coach, but last year saw a change in philosophy as they tried to inject some offense. The Wild have been one of those "you know they're in the NHL but don't really know anything about them" teams for me.
Offense: Like a lot of these middle-of-the-road teams, the Wild don't boast a true offensive "superstar". They have a few good players, led by their new captain, Mikko Koivu, a bigger version of his brother. Koivu has decent skills, but isn't an offensive dynamo just yet. He will be expected to lead the team both in the dressing room and on the ice. A quick check of their roster tells me that their best offensive player is probably Martin Havlat, but he had a really disappointing season last year and will be looking to bounce back. The Wild got great contributions from Guillaume Latendresse after his trade from the Canadiens, and he will be expected to keep up close to that production over the course of the entire season. The Wild are also hoping that Matt Cullen and Eric Nystrom will be able to step in the lineup and produce some offense, especially Cullen who is expected to center the second line between Havlat and Latendresse. The Wild are also hoping for some decent contributions from Andrew Burnette, who kicked in 61 points last year and was a thorn in the Red Wings' side. One player to keep an eye on is Pierre-Marc Bouchard, who only played 1 game last year due to a concussion but should kick in some depth scoring. The big blow to their offensive hopes was the loss of Derek Boogaard, but hopefully someone can step up and fill the void in the offense that his departure left. The Wild are not particularly big up front, and will be relying more on skill and speed than at any other time in their history to date. They also don't get a lot of offense from their blueline, with their biggest threat being Marek Zidlicky, who quarterbacks their power play. The Wild finished 22nd in the NHL last year in team offense, and that number will have to get higher if they want to compete in the Western Conference. One area that doesn't need a lot of work is their power play, which finished 10th in the NHL, a tenth of a point behind the Wings at 19.1%. Any time you can be top 10 in one area of special teams, you're doing well.
Defense: Even though there has been a change in coaching, the Wild still boast a strong defensive unit that doesn't have a real "stalwart", but is solid 1 through 6. The defense is led by Zidlicky and Greg Zanon, a former Predator who most Red Wing fans know as the idiot that yelled "five hole!" at Hasek during the Wings-Preds series in 2008 (by the way, how did that series turn out for you, Zanon? Dick). As much as I dislike him, he's a good defensive defensman who tends to be a smart player. Their second pairing consists of Cam Barker, who never lived up to his potential in Chicago, and Brent Burns, who always makes me thing of that Seinfeld episode where they talk about Alec Burns. Again, a solid if unspectacular pairing. The third pairing has Nick Schultz, a guy who likes to throw his body around, and Clayton Stoner (insert your own joke here). Up front, the Wild signed John Madden, a guy who has been one of the better two-way centers in the last 10 years, and who will contribute defensively. The Wild are not a particularly big team, but do have one of the NHL's big hitters in Cal Clutterbuck, another guy with a great name. The Wild finished 21st in the NHL last year in team defense, a position that is not normal for them. They finished 14th in penalty killing, a decent place but not great. The Wild will definitely be looking to get back to "old-time Wild hockey" next year.
Goaltending: The Wild boast one of the better 1-2 punches in net in the NHL with Nicklas Backstrom (the goalie) and Josh Harding. Backstrom is another of the Finnish goalies that have taken the NHL by storm, and he has consistently put up decent numbers. Last year saw his GAA go up and his save percentage go down, but both stats were good. However, for a team that struggles to score, the goalies need to be better than other teams, and last year both Harding and Backstrom struggled at times. In fact, both of them had their worst year statistically last season, which greatly contributed to the Wild's plunge down the defensive ranks. Both Backstrom and Harding have the potential to be strong contributors, and the Wild will be hoping that last year was a fluke for both of them. If they can get back to where they normally are, the Wild will be vastly improved.
Coaching: After years of boring the shit out of the entire NHL, Jacques Lemaire left the Wild before last season and made way for Todd Richards. Richards came in and attempted to remove the shackles from the team, and it's obvious they were less successful defensively, but there was no real improvement offensively, either. However, everything I've read about him suggests that he is interested in making the team better on offense while maintaining discipline on defense. I think now that he's had an infusion of talent into the team, we'll really see what he is capable of. He has enjoyed success at both the AHL and NHL level, getting the W-B/Scranton Penguins to the AHL Finals in 2008 (where they lost to the local Chicago Wolves), and as an assistant coach for the Sharks when they won the President's Trophy in 2009. He seems to be a good young coach and they are expecting him to lead them up the standings.
Player to Watch: It's really hard to say since I don't know the team that well. But the little bit that I have seen and read about tells me that Mikko Koivu is one of the real underrated stars in the league, and this could be a breakout season for him. His offense has steadily gotten better the past 3 years, and at 27, he's entering his prime. I know from the little I have seen of him that he is a big body with good hands, and he uses his size to his advantage to get to areas where he can score. He also seems to be developing a defensive side to his game, and as the first official permanent captain of the Wild, he's going to be looked to as their leader. This could be a real breakout year for him, and we could be talking about him as one of the better players in the NHL by the time this season is over.
Player With Something to Prove: Martin Havlat was brought in last year to be boost an offense, but he really fared poorly, only going for 54 points a year after getting 77 with the Blackhawks. He said some pretty harsh things about the Hawks organization when he left (who can blame him), but if you're going to badmouth your former employer, it's probably a good idea that you, you know, produce. On the upshot, he did manage to stay healthy for the second straight year, but if the Wild want to do anything this year, he needs to be their primary goal scorer and pick up where he left off after he came over from the Hawks.
Why They Can Win the Division: They don't have a ton of offense, but those goalies (especially Backstrom) are enough to keep the Wild in games this year. If their new arrivals can kick in some scoring and the defense plays up to their potential, the Wild could be competitive in a fairly weak division.
Why They Won't Win the Division: Even if the goalies improve and the defense plays the way they can, there's just not a ton of scoring there, and with teams like Colorado getting a year older and more experienced and Vancouver still appearing to be the class of the division, it will probably be tough sledding once again for the Wild.
My Prediction: The Wild still don't have the horses to make them a playoff team in the Western Conference. I think Mikko Koivu is going to have a big year (and I might just draft him in my fantasy hockey league), but outside of that, I don't think the Wild are going to be able to score with the top teams in the conference. I think Backstrom will bounce back and have a good year, and I think their defense is going to be good. Overall, however, I just don't see the Wild being able to compete over the course of the entire season, and they are going to finish in the bottom half of the conference again.
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Season Preview
Know Thy Enemy - Edmonton Oilers
I hope that everyone had a wonderful Labour Day. I used the last long weekend of summer to work on my golf game and play a little pick-up baseball, and my body responded by essentially seizing up. It's hard to believe that such a small amount of physical exertion could cause this much stiffness, but there you go. I guess I'm getting older, and while I'm not in pro-athlete shape, I still like to think I'm not in Kyle Wellwood territory yet.
Once again, there's not a ton going on in the NHL right now. I won't get into the Dan Ellis thing, because it's stupid and not news at all. Kovy's contract saga is over (thank the maker for that), and it looks like Kirk Maltby might be getting an offer from the Red Wings soon. Training camp is less than 2 weeks away, and pretty soon we'll be watching pre-season games wondering who's going to get the coveted last forward spot.
We finished up the Central Division last week, and today we will be heading north and west to the...Northwest Division. In case you're wondering the order of these, I am looking at each team in reverse order of where they finished in the standings last year. Without further ado, let's move to the last place team from the Northwest last year.
Edmonton Oilers
Arrivals: Kurtis Foster; Colin Fraser; Alexandre Giroux; Jim Vandermeer
Departures: Ethan Moreau; Riley Nash; Robert Nilsson; Patrick O'Sullivan
Last year is a year the Oilers would like to forget. After the past few seasons when the Oilers were at least competitive, they went in the tank last year, finishing last overall in the NHL. The Oilers were not particularly adept at anything beyond getting injured and having their "stars" dramatically underachieve. This year does not promise to be pretty for the Oilers.
Offense: Taking a look at the Oilers' offense, there are very few names that jump out at you as legitimate offensive stars. The offense revolves around Ales Hemsky, probably their best player. Unfortunately, injuries limited him to 22 games last year, although he did score 22 points in those 22 games. The big surprise was Dustin Penner's breakout season where he led the Oilers in scoring with 63 points, making Kevin Lowe look a little smart for signing him to that monster contract as an RFA a few years ago. Besides Penner and Sam Gagner, no player on the Oil ended up with more than 40 points, and there will be a lot expected of the younger players this season. Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano are going to both be expected to step up this season, but the Oil are going to be looking for contributions from some rookies, most notably Team Canada WJC hero Jordan Eberle and Number 1 Overall pick Taylor Hall. Hall is going to very likely make the team this season, and being the first pick in the draft automatically carries a lot of pressure. It will be interesting to see how he responds, but everything I've read about him indicates he is a very confident player who should be able to adjust to the demands of playing in the NHL. For me, my eyes will be on Eberle, a guy who scored big goal after big goal for Canada at the WJC the last couple of years, and who has very quickly developed a reputation as being clutch. Those 2 guys should inject some much needed energy and life into an offense that finished 27th in the NHL last year. However, one area where Edmonton could expect to see a boost is offense from their defensemen. Ryan Whitney played well in his first full season, scoring 39 points for a bad offensive team. Sheldon Souray will be expected to stay healthy for the whole season and will be a boon to the power play. The signing of Kurtis Foster is also designed to infuse some scoring into the lineup, as he will be another pivotal player on the power play should Souray not be able to stay off IR this season. Overall, there might be some improvement in the Oil's offense, but not a lot.
Defense: As I said, the defense of the Oilers is not that bad at first glance. They are led by former Penguin Ryan Whitney, who was never seen as a great player in Pittsburgh but seems to be doing well in Edmonton. He's more of an offensive defenseman, but he was a plus player on a bad team last year, and that means something. Souray will be looking to play more than 37 games last year, and if he can do that, he brings a lot of experience to a young team. Tom Gilbert is a relatively unknown blueliner, but he's got some offensive upside. The signing of Foster and the trade for Vandermeer will add some more experience and talent to the defense. Overall, the defense is probably the strongest area of the team, and the team is hoping that this will prevent them from becoming the worst defensive team in the NHL for the second year in a row. They gave up 15 more goals than the #29 team (the Leafs), and if the Oilers want to be even remotely competitive, they are going to have to get better in this area.
Goaltending: Now if there's an area the Oilers need help in, it's in net. The Oil have been and continue to hope that Nikolai Khabibulin can become a legitimate #1 goalie again, but unfortunately his drinking and driving seem to have gotten in the way of his training. If this were the last year of Khabi's contract, I would pencil him in as a Vezina candidate, but since he's safe for a few more years, all bets are off. If Khabibulin is unable to be the guy the Oilers thought he was, then they are in big trouble. Martin Gerber, Jeff Deslauriers, and Devan Dubnyk are all on the roster, but none of them have any enjoyed any real sustained success in the NHL to this point in their careers. The Oil had 3 goalies play significant minutes last year, and none of them did very well. The Oilers are going to have to get decent play from their goalies.
Coaching: Tom Renney took over as coach of the Oilers this past off-season, and he inherits a young team. Renney is a good coach who enjoyed some success with the Rangers for a number of years before being ousted. He's a former junior coach who also enjoyed some significant success on the international stage, winning multiple medals in the World Championships and a silver medal at the 1994 Olympics. His teams have always been characterized as being solid defensively, but there is little flash there. He will be expected to continue the development of the team into making them respectable in the next few years, but there is little pressure on him this year.
Player to Watch: I think it's a safe bet that all eyes are going to be on Taylor Hall this year. He's coming into camp with a spot on the team pretty much locked up, and he's expected to really challenge for the Calder Trophy this year. He's a dynamic offensive player who put up big numbers in junior (106 points in 57 games last year), and he also showed that he can perform in the playoffs, scoring 35 points in 19 games as the Spitfires won the OHL Championship. He's going to be expected to score big points for the Oil this year, with 50 being a benchmark that seems reachable. However, when you check out his Prospect Profile you'll see that his favourite player is Sidney, so my respect for him just went down a notch. Either way, Hall should be an exciting player to watch this year.
Player With Something to Prove: This year has to be the year that Khabibulin proves he belongs in the discussion of better goalies in the NHL. A lot of people forget that he was a huge reason why the Lightning won the Cup in 2004, and he had a big hand in the Blackhawks' turnaround the last few seasons. However, last year was very forgettable for him personally, and with his back problems seemingly behind him, things were looking up. However, there was that pesky "convicted of a DUI and sentenced to 30 days in jail" thing that he has decided to appeal, so the question will be how much of a distraction that is over the course of a season. The Oilers are a young team overall, and Khabi is one of the main veterans on the team and someone the younger guys will be looking up to. This year could go a long way to restoring a lot of people's opinions about him.
Why They Can Win the Division: Not a chance in hell. None. Zero. Nil. If the Oilers win the Northwest, I will personally fly to Edmonton and have my picture taken with the Gretzky statue. Naked.
Why They Won't Win the Division: This is still a pretty bad team. They are definitely in transition right now, and the process of restoring respectability to the franchise of the '80s begins this year. Unfortunately, even in a weak division like the Northwest, there's no hope for them. I think if they can stay out of the basement in the Western Conference, the season will be considered a success.
My Prediction: This team is years away from being mediocre, although they are moving in the right direction. Unfortunately for their fans, they can expect another long season resulting in a lottery pick. However, if history tells us anything, in 3-4 years, the Oilers will parlay those picks into a Stanley Cup championship, and will then have to sell off the depth players that got them there. Either way, the only highlight for me regarding the Oilers is the H2H2 game on March 11, when I hope to witness my first ever Wings victory at Joe Louis Arena (don't ask me about the only other game I've seen at the Joe - I still have nightmares about it - ok, ask me if you want). Ultimately, this team will be finishing towards the bottom of the NHL standings, but for some reason, the Wings will have problems with them.
Once again, there's not a ton going on in the NHL right now. I won't get into the Dan Ellis thing, because it's stupid and not news at all. Kovy's contract saga is over (thank the maker for that), and it looks like Kirk Maltby might be getting an offer from the Red Wings soon. Training camp is less than 2 weeks away, and pretty soon we'll be watching pre-season games wondering who's going to get the coveted last forward spot.
We finished up the Central Division last week, and today we will be heading north and west to the...Northwest Division. In case you're wondering the order of these, I am looking at each team in reverse order of where they finished in the standings last year. Without further ado, let's move to the last place team from the Northwest last year.
Edmonton Oilers
Arrivals: Kurtis Foster; Colin Fraser; Alexandre Giroux; Jim Vandermeer
Departures: Ethan Moreau; Riley Nash; Robert Nilsson; Patrick O'Sullivan
Last year is a year the Oilers would like to forget. After the past few seasons when the Oilers were at least competitive, they went in the tank last year, finishing last overall in the NHL. The Oilers were not particularly adept at anything beyond getting injured and having their "stars" dramatically underachieve. This year does not promise to be pretty for the Oilers.
Offense: Taking a look at the Oilers' offense, there are very few names that jump out at you as legitimate offensive stars. The offense revolves around Ales Hemsky, probably their best player. Unfortunately, injuries limited him to 22 games last year, although he did score 22 points in those 22 games. The big surprise was Dustin Penner's breakout season where he led the Oilers in scoring with 63 points, making Kevin Lowe look a little smart for signing him to that monster contract as an RFA a few years ago. Besides Penner and Sam Gagner, no player on the Oil ended up with more than 40 points, and there will be a lot expected of the younger players this season. Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano are going to both be expected to step up this season, but the Oil are going to be looking for contributions from some rookies, most notably Team Canada WJC hero Jordan Eberle and Number 1 Overall pick Taylor Hall. Hall is going to very likely make the team this season, and being the first pick in the draft automatically carries a lot of pressure. It will be interesting to see how he responds, but everything I've read about him indicates he is a very confident player who should be able to adjust to the demands of playing in the NHL. For me, my eyes will be on Eberle, a guy who scored big goal after big goal for Canada at the WJC the last couple of years, and who has very quickly developed a reputation as being clutch. Those 2 guys should inject some much needed energy and life into an offense that finished 27th in the NHL last year. However, one area where Edmonton could expect to see a boost is offense from their defensemen. Ryan Whitney played well in his first full season, scoring 39 points for a bad offensive team. Sheldon Souray will be expected to stay healthy for the whole season and will be a boon to the power play. The signing of Kurtis Foster is also designed to infuse some scoring into the lineup, as he will be another pivotal player on the power play should Souray not be able to stay off IR this season. Overall, there might be some improvement in the Oil's offense, but not a lot.
Defense: As I said, the defense of the Oilers is not that bad at first glance. They are led by former Penguin Ryan Whitney, who was never seen as a great player in Pittsburgh but seems to be doing well in Edmonton. He's more of an offensive defenseman, but he was a plus player on a bad team last year, and that means something. Souray will be looking to play more than 37 games last year, and if he can do that, he brings a lot of experience to a young team. Tom Gilbert is a relatively unknown blueliner, but he's got some offensive upside. The signing of Foster and the trade for Vandermeer will add some more experience and talent to the defense. Overall, the defense is probably the strongest area of the team, and the team is hoping that this will prevent them from becoming the worst defensive team in the NHL for the second year in a row. They gave up 15 more goals than the #29 team (the Leafs), and if the Oilers want to be even remotely competitive, they are going to have to get better in this area.
Goaltending: Now if there's an area the Oilers need help in, it's in net. The Oil have been and continue to hope that Nikolai Khabibulin can become a legitimate #1 goalie again, but unfortunately his drinking and driving seem to have gotten in the way of his training. If this were the last year of Khabi's contract, I would pencil him in as a Vezina candidate, but since he's safe for a few more years, all bets are off. If Khabibulin is unable to be the guy the Oilers thought he was, then they are in big trouble. Martin Gerber, Jeff Deslauriers, and Devan Dubnyk are all on the roster, but none of them have any enjoyed any real sustained success in the NHL to this point in their careers. The Oil had 3 goalies play significant minutes last year, and none of them did very well. The Oilers are going to have to get decent play from their goalies.
Coaching: Tom Renney took over as coach of the Oilers this past off-season, and he inherits a young team. Renney is a good coach who enjoyed some success with the Rangers for a number of years before being ousted. He's a former junior coach who also enjoyed some significant success on the international stage, winning multiple medals in the World Championships and a silver medal at the 1994 Olympics. His teams have always been characterized as being solid defensively, but there is little flash there. He will be expected to continue the development of the team into making them respectable in the next few years, but there is little pressure on him this year.
Player to Watch: I think it's a safe bet that all eyes are going to be on Taylor Hall this year. He's coming into camp with a spot on the team pretty much locked up, and he's expected to really challenge for the Calder Trophy this year. He's a dynamic offensive player who put up big numbers in junior (106 points in 57 games last year), and he also showed that he can perform in the playoffs, scoring 35 points in 19 games as the Spitfires won the OHL Championship. He's going to be expected to score big points for the Oil this year, with 50 being a benchmark that seems reachable. However, when you check out his Prospect Profile you'll see that his favourite player is Sidney, so my respect for him just went down a notch. Either way, Hall should be an exciting player to watch this year.
Player With Something to Prove: This year has to be the year that Khabibulin proves he belongs in the discussion of better goalies in the NHL. A lot of people forget that he was a huge reason why the Lightning won the Cup in 2004, and he had a big hand in the Blackhawks' turnaround the last few seasons. However, last year was very forgettable for him personally, and with his back problems seemingly behind him, things were looking up. However, there was that pesky "convicted of a DUI and sentenced to 30 days in jail" thing that he has decided to appeal, so the question will be how much of a distraction that is over the course of a season. The Oilers are a young team overall, and Khabi is one of the main veterans on the team and someone the younger guys will be looking up to. This year could go a long way to restoring a lot of people's opinions about him.
Why They Can Win the Division: Not a chance in hell. None. Zero. Nil. If the Oilers win the Northwest, I will personally fly to Edmonton and have my picture taken with the Gretzky statue. Naked.
Why They Won't Win the Division: This is still a pretty bad team. They are definitely in transition right now, and the process of restoring respectability to the franchise of the '80s begins this year. Unfortunately, even in a weak division like the Northwest, there's no hope for them. I think if they can stay out of the basement in the Western Conference, the season will be considered a success.
My Prediction: This team is years away from being mediocre, although they are moving in the right direction. Unfortunately for their fans, they can expect another long season resulting in a lottery pick. However, if history tells us anything, in 3-4 years, the Oilers will parlay those picks into a Stanley Cup championship, and will then have to sell off the depth players that got them there. Either way, the only highlight for me regarding the Oilers is the H2H2 game on March 11, when I hope to witness my first ever Wings victory at Joe Louis Arena (don't ask me about the only other game I've seen at the Joe - I still have nightmares about it - ok, ask me if you want). Ultimately, this team will be finishing towards the bottom of the NHL standings, but for some reason, the Wings will have problems with them.
Friday, September 3, 2010
Know Thy Enemy - Chicago Blackhawks
I think we're all aware of the issues the Blackhawks have faced this summer. We've all laughed at their misfortunes as they stripped away half of the roster that won the Cup in June. Let's take a look at what we can expect from the Hawks this season.
Chicago Blackhawks
Arrivals: Marty Turco; Jeremy Morin; Jeff Taffe; Viktor Stalberg; Phillipe Paradis; Christopher DiDomenico
Departures: Have you got a while? Dustin Byfuglien; Ben Eager; Brent Sopel; Akim Aliu; Andrew Ladd; Kris Versteeg; Colin Fraser; John Madden; Adam Burish; Antti Niemi; Nick Boynton; Kim Johnsson
The Chicago Blackhawks. Little Brother. To the horror of Red Wing fans and decent people everywhere, Patrick Kane's ugly goal in OT in Game 6 gave the Hawks their first Stanley Cup championship in 49 years. The Hawks had been a team on the rise the last few years, and they really went for broke last year. It paid off with the ultimate prize, but they were forced to get rid of over half of the roster that was responsible for their win, including their starting goalie, a strong presence in Byfuglien, and 2/3 of their checking line (one of the best third lines in the NHL last year) in Ladd and Madden. Heading into this year, the Hawks are going to have to deal with not only a completely overhauled roster but also the dreaded "Stanley Cup hangover". Let's break them down.
Offense: Yes, the Hawks lost a lot of forwards. But if you check out their roster, there's still quite a bit of talent there. Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane will once again lead the offensive output from the Hawks, but they are also counting on Marian Hossa being healthy for the entire season and really contributing some goals this year. They will also be counting on Dave Bolland being healthy for the entire season, as he is slated to take the #2 center spot. Patrick Sharp is one of the more underrated players in the league (except by the ladies, who seem to think he is some sort of good-looking guy), and he was one of the players I was hoping the Hawks would lose. Where the Hawks are going to be in trouble this year is in their depth scoring. Of the players they lost, only Versteeg had over 40 points last year. However, depth scoring is what gets a team through the playoffs; witness Byfuglien's unbelieveable run last year in the playoffs. Ben Eager and Tomas Kopecky both contributed key goals in the Finals last year, and if a team wants to go far in the post-season, they are going to need key contributions from unlikely sources. The Hawks are counting on some of their prospects to step in and make at least a decent impact, including Jack Skille, Kyle Beach and Jake Dowell. If any of those guys can come in and put up 30-40 points, the Hawks will be pretty happy. One area where the Hawks excel is getting offense from the blueline. Duncan Keith, Brian Campbell and Brent Seabrook accounted for 3 of the top 11 scorers on the Hawks last season, and Keith finished second on the team with 69 points. They have to be accounted for when game-planning, especially Campbell who is very adept at joining the rush, and Keith who seems to be everywhere. The Hawks finished third overall in team offense last year with 262 goals, but I fully expect that number to come down since they have lost a lot of their scorers from their third line. One area where the Hawks can improve is on the power play, which had a success rate of under 18% for the season, hard to believe when they have 2 of the better PP quarterbacks in Keith and Campbell, and good talent up front with Kane, Toews and Sharp. Look for the Hawks to take a step backwards on offense this season.
Defense: For all of the people the Hawks lost on offense, their defense remained relatively unscathed for the most part. They have one of the best 1-2 combinations in Keith and Brent Seabrook. Keith is coming off a season where he won the Norris Trophy (deservedly so, in my opinion), and I expect him to be a perennial finalist. He does everything and can play in any situation, and once Lidstrom does decide to retire, he will have a legitimate shot at the title of "Best Defenseman in the NHL". Like Ryan Suter in Nashville, Seabrook is content to play Robin to Keith's Batman. On almost any other team in the NHL, Seabrook would be a bonafide #1 defenseman, but he works with Keith so well that he has found his home. The Hawks also have a very good second pair with the highest-paid #3 defenseman in the NHL in Brian Campbell and $4M-a-year-man Niklas Hjalmarsson. I know that Hawks fans are pretty pissed at Doug Wilson for signing Hjalmarsson to the offer sheet, but he's an important piece of the Hawks' defense that they just had to lock up. Hjalmarsson is still young and prone to some mental mistakes, but he's got good vision and can handle the puck well. The Hawks will be going with a young duo for their third pairing, having lost Brent Sopel in the trade to Atlanta. Still, their top-4 can match up with anyone in the NHL. One area where the Hawks might have issues is up front. They lost Ladd and Madden, 2 of the key players on their checking line. Madden in particular was a very good faceoff man and has been one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL for a long time. He will really be missed by the team. Toews is responsible in his own zone, but Kane needs a map to find his own blue line. It will be interesting to see how that affects their penalty killing, which ranked fourth in the NHL at over 85%. The Hawks also gave up the least amount of shots in the NHL last year, taking a page from the Red Wings' book on how to defend. Like the Wings, the Hawks play a strong puck possession game, and that will not change going forward, making them a difficult team to score against once again this year.
Goaltending: Antti Niemi was the hero of the playoffs for the Hawks, especially in the Conference Finals where he really stood on his head against the Sharks. However, the cap monster reared his ugly head once again, and with the Hawks already on the hook for Cristobal Huet's contract, they could not afford Niemi's $2.75M award from the arbitrator, allowing him to walk away. In his place, they signed Marty Turco. Now, we Red Wing fans all smiled and high-fived each other when we heard the news, and from a matchup perspective, I still like the signing; however, Turco is still a good goalie, and his issues against the Wings notwithstanding, he was a good signing. He had a down year last year in Dallas, but that was behind a depleted team. Expect him to bounce back in a big way as he will be playing behind a very good defense that will protect him, and he will also be looking to prove that he is still one of the better goalies in the NHL. Sure the Wings are going to beat him 5 times this year (write that down - 5 times), but against the rest of the league, he is going to help the Hawks win a lot of games and rack up points. Huet is very likely to be shipped to Europe, so he's gone, and Corey Crawford will be called up from Rockford to assume the backup position. Ultimately, Crawford is the Hawks' goalie of the future, and he might as well start his learning process now when he's cheap.
Coaching: Joel Quenneville has always been known as a good coach, even if he can't beat the Red Wings in a seven-game playoff series. All of his teams have been competitive, and depending on the talent level, mediocre to good. Last year he made all the right moves to get his team a championship, including rolling the dice with a rookie goalie in the playoffs, a bold move under any circumstances. Like Mike Babcock, he has never met a line combination that he couldn't tinker with, but he knows who his horses are and will ride them for maximum impact. His style is predicated on puck possession and smart decisions. His teams are not that big, but emphasize skill over brawn. This year will be interesting to see what he can do with a team that has reached the top of the mountain, as he's going to have to keep them motivated throughout the year. I think he's been around long enough to know what he's going to have to do to keep the Hawks contending and sharp throughout the season.
Player to Watch: Jonathan Toews is poised to have a very big breakout year this year. Last year was amazing for him: he was one point away from his career high despite playing in 6 less games; he cracked the 20-goal mark for the third straight year; he was named the Top Forward at the Olympics while winning gold for Canada; he won the Conn Smythe Trophy as the MVP of the playoffs; and he captained the Stanley Cup champion. That's a lot for a kid that is only 22 years old. This year, look for him to build on that, as he will be expected to take an even bigger role in the team's offense while playing solid two-way play. I think this could be the year that he cracks the 80 point mark, and if his defensive work keeps up, he could be nominated for a Selke as well. He's just as vanilla as Crosby, but there's something about Toews that I like; I won't make the Yzerman comparison just yet, but I will admit there are similarities there, not only in style of play but also in personality, that are hard to ignore. I could see Toews being a lot like Sakic was for me; hate the team, but respect the player.
Player With Something to Prove: I went a little outside the box on this one. I'm going to say that it's Jack Skille. He was drafted 7th overall in 2005, but has yet to have made the team on a regular basis. He was very highly touted coming off his NCAA career, but while guys like Toews and Kane have stepped in to the lineup right away and made an impact, Skille has been toiling in the minors, unable to crack the team. I've been told by Hawks fans that this was a salary thing, but why not bring Skille up (at a decent price) instead of signing Kopecky? This year is his make-or-break year. He's going to have a real shot at not only making the team but playing on the third line. He's also going to be expected to contribute at the NHL level, something that he has not shown he can do in his limited action. If this were the Red Wings, I would say that the Hawks had been waiting for Skille's development to be more complete, but when the Hawks drafted him, they were awful and going with a youth movement. Like Mattias Ritola in Detroit, Skille's time is now, and it's up to him to show that he belongs at this level.
Why They Can Win the Division: Regardless of the people they have lost, the talent is still there for the Hawks to be very good in the regular season. The guys that they lost were not key contributors during the regular season, with only Kris Versteeg cracking the 40 point mark last year of the guys who left. Their top-6 forwards are still intact, and their defense is just about as good as anyone in the NHL. They added a good (if not great) goalie, and given that Niemi was a rookie last year, this could be seen as an upgrade in net. This team can not be overlooked, and if they stay healthy, they will contend for the division crown this year. They will also be looking to prove that last year was no fluke.
Why They Won't Win the Division: Their losses combined with the Red Wings upgrades puts them back in familiar territory: second-fiddle to Detroit. The loss of depth scoring is going to hurt them, because the grind of the regular season will get to their top players. If the Hawks sustain any injuries to a key contributor (Hossa missed half the season last year, and Toews got nicked up at one point), they could be in serious trouble. Turco is going to have to prove that last year's poor play was an aberration, and that he can bounce back and give them solid goaltending. The defense is also going to have to be very good once again.
My Prediction: The Hawks are going to learn what it's like to be the hunted rather than the hunter. I don't believe in the "Stanley Cup hangover", but I really question whether the entire team (Kane, I'm looking in your direction) can maintain the focus necessary to defend their title. The losses on offense are going to show during the regular season, and the top players are going to be relied on much more than they were last year. The team figures to be more top-heavy this year, and this will result in a tired team by the time the playoffs roll around. Ultimately, the lack of depth will be their downfall, and the Hawks will fail to make it back to the Stanley Cup Finals. There's a reason that it's been over 10 years since an NHL team went back-to-back, and I fully expect this trend to continue this year. However, do not underestimate the Hawks: they are still a very good team, and if the Wings don't show any improvement over last year, they could easily find themselves looking up at the Hawks in the division for the second year in a row. I expect the Central to be a two-horse race this year between the Hawks and Wings, but ultimately the Wings will prevail in mid-March when the Hawks run out of gas. I also predict that the first time I hear "Chelsea Dagger", I am going to stab myself in the ear.
Chicago Blackhawks
Arrivals: Marty Turco; Jeremy Morin; Jeff Taffe; Viktor Stalberg; Phillipe Paradis; Christopher DiDomenico
Departures: Have you got a while? Dustin Byfuglien; Ben Eager; Brent Sopel; Akim Aliu; Andrew Ladd; Kris Versteeg; Colin Fraser; John Madden; Adam Burish; Antti Niemi; Nick Boynton; Kim Johnsson
The Chicago Blackhawks. Little Brother. To the horror of Red Wing fans and decent people everywhere, Patrick Kane's ugly goal in OT in Game 6 gave the Hawks their first Stanley Cup championship in 49 years. The Hawks had been a team on the rise the last few years, and they really went for broke last year. It paid off with the ultimate prize, but they were forced to get rid of over half of the roster that was responsible for their win, including their starting goalie, a strong presence in Byfuglien, and 2/3 of their checking line (one of the best third lines in the NHL last year) in Ladd and Madden. Heading into this year, the Hawks are going to have to deal with not only a completely overhauled roster but also the dreaded "Stanley Cup hangover". Let's break them down.
Offense: Yes, the Hawks lost a lot of forwards. But if you check out their roster, there's still quite a bit of talent there. Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane will once again lead the offensive output from the Hawks, but they are also counting on Marian Hossa being healthy for the entire season and really contributing some goals this year. They will also be counting on Dave Bolland being healthy for the entire season, as he is slated to take the #2 center spot. Patrick Sharp is one of the more underrated players in the league (except by the ladies, who seem to think he is some sort of good-looking guy), and he was one of the players I was hoping the Hawks would lose. Where the Hawks are going to be in trouble this year is in their depth scoring. Of the players they lost, only Versteeg had over 40 points last year. However, depth scoring is what gets a team through the playoffs; witness Byfuglien's unbelieveable run last year in the playoffs. Ben Eager and Tomas Kopecky both contributed key goals in the Finals last year, and if a team wants to go far in the post-season, they are going to need key contributions from unlikely sources. The Hawks are counting on some of their prospects to step in and make at least a decent impact, including Jack Skille, Kyle Beach and Jake Dowell. If any of those guys can come in and put up 30-40 points, the Hawks will be pretty happy. One area where the Hawks excel is getting offense from the blueline. Duncan Keith, Brian Campbell and Brent Seabrook accounted for 3 of the top 11 scorers on the Hawks last season, and Keith finished second on the team with 69 points. They have to be accounted for when game-planning, especially Campbell who is very adept at joining the rush, and Keith who seems to be everywhere. The Hawks finished third overall in team offense last year with 262 goals, but I fully expect that number to come down since they have lost a lot of their scorers from their third line. One area where the Hawks can improve is on the power play, which had a success rate of under 18% for the season, hard to believe when they have 2 of the better PP quarterbacks in Keith and Campbell, and good talent up front with Kane, Toews and Sharp. Look for the Hawks to take a step backwards on offense this season.
Defense: For all of the people the Hawks lost on offense, their defense remained relatively unscathed for the most part. They have one of the best 1-2 combinations in Keith and Brent Seabrook. Keith is coming off a season where he won the Norris Trophy (deservedly so, in my opinion), and I expect him to be a perennial finalist. He does everything and can play in any situation, and once Lidstrom does decide to retire, he will have a legitimate shot at the title of "Best Defenseman in the NHL". Like Ryan Suter in Nashville, Seabrook is content to play Robin to Keith's Batman. On almost any other team in the NHL, Seabrook would be a bonafide #1 defenseman, but he works with Keith so well that he has found his home. The Hawks also have a very good second pair with the highest-paid #3 defenseman in the NHL in Brian Campbell and $4M-a-year-man Niklas Hjalmarsson. I know that Hawks fans are pretty pissed at Doug Wilson for signing Hjalmarsson to the offer sheet, but he's an important piece of the Hawks' defense that they just had to lock up. Hjalmarsson is still young and prone to some mental mistakes, but he's got good vision and can handle the puck well. The Hawks will be going with a young duo for their third pairing, having lost Brent Sopel in the trade to Atlanta. Still, their top-4 can match up with anyone in the NHL. One area where the Hawks might have issues is up front. They lost Ladd and Madden, 2 of the key players on their checking line. Madden in particular was a very good faceoff man and has been one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL for a long time. He will really be missed by the team. Toews is responsible in his own zone, but Kane needs a map to find his own blue line. It will be interesting to see how that affects their penalty killing, which ranked fourth in the NHL at over 85%. The Hawks also gave up the least amount of shots in the NHL last year, taking a page from the Red Wings' book on how to defend. Like the Wings, the Hawks play a strong puck possession game, and that will not change going forward, making them a difficult team to score against once again this year.
Goaltending: Antti Niemi was the hero of the playoffs for the Hawks, especially in the Conference Finals where he really stood on his head against the Sharks. However, the cap monster reared his ugly head once again, and with the Hawks already on the hook for Cristobal Huet's contract, they could not afford Niemi's $2.75M award from the arbitrator, allowing him to walk away. In his place, they signed Marty Turco. Now, we Red Wing fans all smiled and high-fived each other when we heard the news, and from a matchup perspective, I still like the signing; however, Turco is still a good goalie, and his issues against the Wings notwithstanding, he was a good signing. He had a down year last year in Dallas, but that was behind a depleted team. Expect him to bounce back in a big way as he will be playing behind a very good defense that will protect him, and he will also be looking to prove that he is still one of the better goalies in the NHL. Sure the Wings are going to beat him 5 times this year (write that down - 5 times), but against the rest of the league, he is going to help the Hawks win a lot of games and rack up points. Huet is very likely to be shipped to Europe, so he's gone, and Corey Crawford will be called up from Rockford to assume the backup position. Ultimately, Crawford is the Hawks' goalie of the future, and he might as well start his learning process now when he's cheap.
Coaching: Joel Quenneville has always been known as a good coach, even if he can't beat the Red Wings in a seven-game playoff series. All of his teams have been competitive, and depending on the talent level, mediocre to good. Last year he made all the right moves to get his team a championship, including rolling the dice with a rookie goalie in the playoffs, a bold move under any circumstances. Like Mike Babcock, he has never met a line combination that he couldn't tinker with, but he knows who his horses are and will ride them for maximum impact. His style is predicated on puck possession and smart decisions. His teams are not that big, but emphasize skill over brawn. This year will be interesting to see what he can do with a team that has reached the top of the mountain, as he's going to have to keep them motivated throughout the year. I think he's been around long enough to know what he's going to have to do to keep the Hawks contending and sharp throughout the season.
Player to Watch: Jonathan Toews is poised to have a very big breakout year this year. Last year was amazing for him: he was one point away from his career high despite playing in 6 less games; he cracked the 20-goal mark for the third straight year; he was named the Top Forward at the Olympics while winning gold for Canada; he won the Conn Smythe Trophy as the MVP of the playoffs; and he captained the Stanley Cup champion. That's a lot for a kid that is only 22 years old. This year, look for him to build on that, as he will be expected to take an even bigger role in the team's offense while playing solid two-way play. I think this could be the year that he cracks the 80 point mark, and if his defensive work keeps up, he could be nominated for a Selke as well. He's just as vanilla as Crosby, but there's something about Toews that I like; I won't make the Yzerman comparison just yet, but I will admit there are similarities there, not only in style of play but also in personality, that are hard to ignore. I could see Toews being a lot like Sakic was for me; hate the team, but respect the player.
Player With Something to Prove: I went a little outside the box on this one. I'm going to say that it's Jack Skille. He was drafted 7th overall in 2005, but has yet to have made the team on a regular basis. He was very highly touted coming off his NCAA career, but while guys like Toews and Kane have stepped in to the lineup right away and made an impact, Skille has been toiling in the minors, unable to crack the team. I've been told by Hawks fans that this was a salary thing, but why not bring Skille up (at a decent price) instead of signing Kopecky? This year is his make-or-break year. He's going to have a real shot at not only making the team but playing on the third line. He's also going to be expected to contribute at the NHL level, something that he has not shown he can do in his limited action. If this were the Red Wings, I would say that the Hawks had been waiting for Skille's development to be more complete, but when the Hawks drafted him, they were awful and going with a youth movement. Like Mattias Ritola in Detroit, Skille's time is now, and it's up to him to show that he belongs at this level.
Why They Can Win the Division: Regardless of the people they have lost, the talent is still there for the Hawks to be very good in the regular season. The guys that they lost were not key contributors during the regular season, with only Kris Versteeg cracking the 40 point mark last year of the guys who left. Their top-6 forwards are still intact, and their defense is just about as good as anyone in the NHL. They added a good (if not great) goalie, and given that Niemi was a rookie last year, this could be seen as an upgrade in net. This team can not be overlooked, and if they stay healthy, they will contend for the division crown this year. They will also be looking to prove that last year was no fluke.
Why They Won't Win the Division: Their losses combined with the Red Wings upgrades puts them back in familiar territory: second-fiddle to Detroit. The loss of depth scoring is going to hurt them, because the grind of the regular season will get to their top players. If the Hawks sustain any injuries to a key contributor (Hossa missed half the season last year, and Toews got nicked up at one point), they could be in serious trouble. Turco is going to have to prove that last year's poor play was an aberration, and that he can bounce back and give them solid goaltending. The defense is also going to have to be very good once again.
My Prediction: The Hawks are going to learn what it's like to be the hunted rather than the hunter. I don't believe in the "Stanley Cup hangover", but I really question whether the entire team (Kane, I'm looking in your direction) can maintain the focus necessary to defend their title. The losses on offense are going to show during the regular season, and the top players are going to be relied on much more than they were last year. The team figures to be more top-heavy this year, and this will result in a tired team by the time the playoffs roll around. Ultimately, the lack of depth will be their downfall, and the Hawks will fail to make it back to the Stanley Cup Finals. There's a reason that it's been over 10 years since an NHL team went back-to-back, and I fully expect this trend to continue this year. However, do not underestimate the Hawks: they are still a very good team, and if the Wings don't show any improvement over last year, they could easily find themselves looking up at the Hawks in the division for the second year in a row. I expect the Central to be a two-horse race this year between the Hawks and Wings, but ultimately the Wings will prevail in mid-March when the Hawks run out of gas. I also predict that the first time I hear "Chelsea Dagger", I am going to stab myself in the ear.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Know Thy Enemy - Nashville Predators
There was some great debate last night and this morning on Twitter and around the blogs about the NHL's supposed "ultimatum" issued to the PA with regards to the Kovalchuk contract. It was good stuff, and Michael Petrella over at The Production Line really sounded off on his thoughts about the whole situation. JJ from Kansas wondered aloud whether this was a conspiracy by the league to gauge the fans' reaction. Personally, I like the idea of there being a clearer line as to what constitutes a "valid" contract and what is going to be considered circumvention of the salary cap. If the "requests" made by the NHL are indeed real, I also have no problems with them. However, like Petrella, I have a real issue with the method the NHL may be undertaking to effect this change. I do not believe that a heavy-handed approach was either necessary or warranted in this situation, especially considering they have the Arbitrator's ruling in their back pocket as a trump card to play at any time. The NHL had an independent person tell them that the Kovalchuk deal was no good, and while I don't doubt that they are in a position of strength, that does not mean they need to play the "bad guy" with threats. I think that with this ruling, the issue will be fixed going forward, and the NHL can close this loophole when they sit down to actually negotiate the CBA in the future. I do not believe that a full amendment of the current CBA is warranted, because both sides negotiated and agreed to that contract in good faith. It's not the PA's fault now that some agents and GMs figured out this loophole and exploited it, and it would be unfair to punish the players now based on the actions of some ingenious people. The NHL will have their chance when the current CBA is up for renewal/renegotiation, and I would love to see something in writing about these long-term contracts so that we never have to go through this debacle again. I think the key thing to remember here is that these types of contracts are relatively rare, so it's not like we are talking about the majority of the players being affected.
Perhaps this is what bothers me the most: these type of contracts amount to less than 10% of the total number of contracts currently in force, yet it's the rank-and-file that are going to feel the brunt of the NHL's "wrath" when the next CBA is put in force. There's only so much money and salary to go around, and as we've seen this off-season, some pretty talented people are still without jobs. Thankfully I am not in charge of figuring out how to resolve this issue, but I will be watching closely to see how this all shakes out. I will say this: to the Devils and Kovalchuk, thanks for being giant dickwads and potentially fucking this whole thing up. That first contract was an absolute joke, and even someone with only a rudimentary understanding of the salary cap and circumvention knew what you were both trying to do. I don't know if it was by design or not, but I blame the Devils for being so blatant in trying to get around the cap, and Kovalchuk for not taking less so that this is over. I understand he wants to maximize his income; but there's a bigger issue here, and he could easily have sacrificed some years and/or dollars in order to get a contract in place and avoid all this.
Now that my little rant is over (and thanks to Petrella for the inspiration), let's move on with our season preview. Today we take a look at our favourite "southern" team, Bubba.
Nashville Predators
Arrivals: Matthew Lombardi; Ryan Parent; Sergei Kostitsyn; Jonas Andersson
Departures: Jason Arnott; Dan Hamhuis; Dan Ellis; Dustin Boyd
For a time during the mid-2000's, the Predators were the Wings' only real divisional rivals. Last season saw the Preds reach the 100 point mark, but they finished seventh in the Western Conference and were ousted in the first round by the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Blac.....kha....wks (yikes that hurt to type). While it was a disappointing exit for the Preds, they did reach for the playoffs after missing them altogether in 2008-09. The Preds will be looking to build on a season that saw some improvements and their first road playoff win in franchise history.
Offense: For years, the biggest challenge facing the Predators has been finding consistent scoring, and last year was no different. Their leading scorer was Steve Sullivan, and he only had 51 points, tied with Patric Hornqvist, who was the team's only 30-goal scorer. The Preds are hoping that the acquisitions of Lombardi and Kostitsyn will help turn around a team that finished 17th in the NHL in offense with only 217 goals. Unfortunately for the Predators, players like Martin Erat and David Legwand have never developed into legitimate offensive superstars the team thought they were. JP Dumont has long been a guy who could be counted on for 40-60 points, but he does not have the talent to be the number 1 guy in an offensive role. Perhaps Kostitsyn can benefit from the change of scenery; there's no questioning his talent is there, but he has long been known as a guy who needed the proper motivation. The loss of their captain, Jason Arnott, also will leave a hole in the lineup that needs to be filled, and I know the team is hoping that Lombardi can flourish in the Nashville the lineup the way he did for Phoenix. The Preds do have 2 of the better young offensive defensemen in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, and both of them are going to be expected to chip in with some offense from the blueline. In what I believe is a theme throughout most of the Central Division, the Preds are going to be looking for their young players like Colin Wilson, Cal O'Reilly and Blake Geoffrion to break through and have solid seasons. The Preds could benefit from improvement on the power play, where they ranked 24th in the NHL.
Defense: The Predators are fortunate to have a great 1-2 combination in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. Weber was just named captain of the team, and figures to take an even more prominent role both on offense and defense. Weber is one of those guys who can do it all; he's big, strong, talented and mean. Personally, I believe that he will be nominated for, if not win, a Norris Trophy in the next 2-3 years. Suter often gets overshawdowed on the team by Weber, but he is also an ultra-talented defenseman who can contribute offensively while playing shut-down minutes against the top line of the opponent. Beyond those two, the Preds have a number of young blueliners they are hoping to see some positive contributions from, including Kevin Klein and Cody Franson. They employ Francis Bouillon on the second pair, and although he is not big in stature, he plays a big man's game, using his body while playing solid minutes. The team has a quietly effective checking line consisting of Joel Ward and Jerrod Smithson. The one thing that all Predator teams have in common with each other is that they all play sound team defense, and this year's team looks to be no exception. They finished last year 14th in goals against, and any time you can be in the top half of the league of a major statistic like that, you're doing something right. However, one area where they can show a lot of improvement is on their penalty kill, which finished a dreadful 28th in the league at under 78%. In a division boasting the Wings and Hawks, both teams with potent power plays, the Predators are going to have to shore up their penalty killing if they want to stay in the division race.
Goaltending: I guess if you want to know who the Predators' goalie is going to be by the end of the year, you first need to figure out who their backup goalie is going to be this year. Unfortunately, as of this writing, the Predators did not have a backup on their roster, so it looks like Pekka Rinne's job is safe for now. Just as Chris Mason lost his job to Dan Ellis, Ellis in turn lost his job to Rinne last year. Once Rinne took over the starter's job midway through the season, he proceeded to put up good numbers: a 2.53 GAA with a .911 SV% in 58 games. What was most impressive, however, was the 7 shutouts he pitched in that short amount of time. Like Mason in Columbus, Halak in St Louis and Howard in Detroit, Rinne is going to be under pressure this season to prove that he can be consistent and provide his team with quality goaltending over the course of an entire season. One thing about Rinne is that he is a big guy, standing 6'5" and 207 lbs, yet he is extremely agile. The Predators are known for having solid goaltending, and Rinne is no exception. He should keep the Preds in a lot of games and expect to see them in a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games.
Coaching: Barry Trotz is not only the current longest-tenured coach in the NHL, he is also the only coach the Predators organization has ever known, and given what he does year in and year out for this team, that will probably not change. Besides looking like someone who would be providing muscle for the mob, he's a hell of a coach who seems to be able to extract every last ounce of talent out of each player on his team. Trotz' teams have the same qualities: they believe in a strong work ethic and solid positional play. They are never flashy, and they do not like to get into offensive-shootouts with their opposition. They are very comfortable slowing the game down and turning it into a defensive slug-fest. Trotz has the uncanny ability to keep his team competitive despite who is on the roster, and I shudder to think what he could do with a team of legitimate superstars.
Player to Watch: I think this is the year that Shea Weber takes his rightful place as one of the top defensemen in the NHL today. He has been given the "C" and will be expected to lead this team on the ice and off. He plays a lot of minutes against the other team's best players, and is used in all situations. He also has one of the hardest shots in the NHL, and is deadly from the point on the power play. Like Rick Nash, he is a guy that I would not hesitate to trade for if I had a chance as an NHL GM. I think that if things go his way this year, he will be a finalist for the Norris Trophy at the end of the season.
Player With Something to Prove: Honestly, I wasn't sure who to put here. My gut reaction was to go with Kostitsyn, but that's a given. For me, if I'm a Predators fan, I'm watching Matthew Lombardi very closely. He was brought in to give the Preds a legitimate scoring threat at center beyond Steve Sullivan, and he will be replacing former captain and longer-term Predator Jason Arnott. Arnott was let go because he could not deliver when it counted, and Lombardi will be expected to provide consistent offense and chip in at key times. He fits more in the system that the Preds employ, which is based more on speed than size up front. However, last year saw him put up a career high in points with 53, and he will be expected to at least duplicate that, if not surpass it.
Why They Can Win the Division: A lot of people tend to overlook the Predators year in and year out, and I think they enjoy the underdog label. However, this is a team that finished with 100 points last year, including 47 wins. They only finished 2 points behind the Wings last year, and this young team should only get better. It would be a mistake to underestimate them, as they have the goaltending and defense to keep them in games. Plus, you can never count out a Barry Trotz-coached team.
Why They Won't Win the Division: For the improvements the Preds made up front, this is still a young team that does not have a ton of offensive depth. The acquisitions of Lombardi and Kostitsyn should help them in this regard, but beyond that there is not a lot of proven talent there. Rinne could be subject to a sophomore slump as well, and if he falters the Preds are in trouble. Overall I just don't see them having the horses to compete with the Wings and Hawks.
My Prediction: This team is going to be good; perhaps better than people expect. I know we make fun of Bubba a lot, but they are returning a lot of their younger players that didn't tear up the league last year, but who performed adequately. If they can get any improvement out of those guys, they will be in good shape. I like the arrival of Lombardi, but Kostitsyn is going to have to show a commitment level that was not displayed in Montreal. I think the departure of Dan Ellis is going to hurt them at times, as there is not a dependable backup on the team right now that the Preds could count on should Rinne falter. However, given their previous history, that backup will end up being next year's starter anyway. The defense is very good, and as I said, look for Shea Weber to make a big impact not only on the Predators but also on the NHL as a whole. I think another 100 point season is not out of the question, and they will once again finish in the middle of the conference. I also predict that at some point in the season, I will yell "shut the fuck up with those damn whistles!" at the TV.
Perhaps this is what bothers me the most: these type of contracts amount to less than 10% of the total number of contracts currently in force, yet it's the rank-and-file that are going to feel the brunt of the NHL's "wrath" when the next CBA is put in force. There's only so much money and salary to go around, and as we've seen this off-season, some pretty talented people are still without jobs. Thankfully I am not in charge of figuring out how to resolve this issue, but I will be watching closely to see how this all shakes out. I will say this: to the Devils and Kovalchuk, thanks for being giant dickwads and potentially fucking this whole thing up. That first contract was an absolute joke, and even someone with only a rudimentary understanding of the salary cap and circumvention knew what you were both trying to do. I don't know if it was by design or not, but I blame the Devils for being so blatant in trying to get around the cap, and Kovalchuk for not taking less so that this is over. I understand he wants to maximize his income; but there's a bigger issue here, and he could easily have sacrificed some years and/or dollars in order to get a contract in place and avoid all this.
Now that my little rant is over (and thanks to Petrella for the inspiration), let's move on with our season preview. Today we take a look at our favourite "southern" team, Bubba.
Nashville Predators
Arrivals: Matthew Lombardi; Ryan Parent; Sergei Kostitsyn; Jonas Andersson
Departures: Jason Arnott; Dan Hamhuis; Dan Ellis; Dustin Boyd
For a time during the mid-2000's, the Predators were the Wings' only real divisional rivals. Last season saw the Preds reach the 100 point mark, but they finished seventh in the Western Conference and were ousted in the first round by the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Blac.....kha....wks (yikes that hurt to type). While it was a disappointing exit for the Preds, they did reach for the playoffs after missing them altogether in 2008-09. The Preds will be looking to build on a season that saw some improvements and their first road playoff win in franchise history.
Offense: For years, the biggest challenge facing the Predators has been finding consistent scoring, and last year was no different. Their leading scorer was Steve Sullivan, and he only had 51 points, tied with Patric Hornqvist, who was the team's only 30-goal scorer. The Preds are hoping that the acquisitions of Lombardi and Kostitsyn will help turn around a team that finished 17th in the NHL in offense with only 217 goals. Unfortunately for the Predators, players like Martin Erat and David Legwand have never developed into legitimate offensive superstars the team thought they were. JP Dumont has long been a guy who could be counted on for 40-60 points, but he does not have the talent to be the number 1 guy in an offensive role. Perhaps Kostitsyn can benefit from the change of scenery; there's no questioning his talent is there, but he has long been known as a guy who needed the proper motivation. The loss of their captain, Jason Arnott, also will leave a hole in the lineup that needs to be filled, and I know the team is hoping that Lombardi can flourish in the Nashville the lineup the way he did for Phoenix. The Preds do have 2 of the better young offensive defensemen in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, and both of them are going to be expected to chip in with some offense from the blueline. In what I believe is a theme throughout most of the Central Division, the Preds are going to be looking for their young players like Colin Wilson, Cal O'Reilly and Blake Geoffrion to break through and have solid seasons. The Preds could benefit from improvement on the power play, where they ranked 24th in the NHL.
Defense: The Predators are fortunate to have a great 1-2 combination in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. Weber was just named captain of the team, and figures to take an even more prominent role both on offense and defense. Weber is one of those guys who can do it all; he's big, strong, talented and mean. Personally, I believe that he will be nominated for, if not win, a Norris Trophy in the next 2-3 years. Suter often gets overshawdowed on the team by Weber, but he is also an ultra-talented defenseman who can contribute offensively while playing shut-down minutes against the top line of the opponent. Beyond those two, the Preds have a number of young blueliners they are hoping to see some positive contributions from, including Kevin Klein and Cody Franson. They employ Francis Bouillon on the second pair, and although he is not big in stature, he plays a big man's game, using his body while playing solid minutes. The team has a quietly effective checking line consisting of Joel Ward and Jerrod Smithson. The one thing that all Predator teams have in common with each other is that they all play sound team defense, and this year's team looks to be no exception. They finished last year 14th in goals against, and any time you can be in the top half of the league of a major statistic like that, you're doing something right. However, one area where they can show a lot of improvement is on their penalty kill, which finished a dreadful 28th in the league at under 78%. In a division boasting the Wings and Hawks, both teams with potent power plays, the Predators are going to have to shore up their penalty killing if they want to stay in the division race.
Goaltending: I guess if you want to know who the Predators' goalie is going to be by the end of the year, you first need to figure out who their backup goalie is going to be this year. Unfortunately, as of this writing, the Predators did not have a backup on their roster, so it looks like Pekka Rinne's job is safe for now. Just as Chris Mason lost his job to Dan Ellis, Ellis in turn lost his job to Rinne last year. Once Rinne took over the starter's job midway through the season, he proceeded to put up good numbers: a 2.53 GAA with a .911 SV% in 58 games. What was most impressive, however, was the 7 shutouts he pitched in that short amount of time. Like Mason in Columbus, Halak in St Louis and Howard in Detroit, Rinne is going to be under pressure this season to prove that he can be consistent and provide his team with quality goaltending over the course of an entire season. One thing about Rinne is that he is a big guy, standing 6'5" and 207 lbs, yet he is extremely agile. The Predators are known for having solid goaltending, and Rinne is no exception. He should keep the Preds in a lot of games and expect to see them in a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games.
Coaching: Barry Trotz is not only the current longest-tenured coach in the NHL, he is also the only coach the Predators organization has ever known, and given what he does year in and year out for this team, that will probably not change. Besides looking like someone who would be providing muscle for the mob, he's a hell of a coach who seems to be able to extract every last ounce of talent out of each player on his team. Trotz' teams have the same qualities: they believe in a strong work ethic and solid positional play. They are never flashy, and they do not like to get into offensive-shootouts with their opposition. They are very comfortable slowing the game down and turning it into a defensive slug-fest. Trotz has the uncanny ability to keep his team competitive despite who is on the roster, and I shudder to think what he could do with a team of legitimate superstars.
Player to Watch: I think this is the year that Shea Weber takes his rightful place as one of the top defensemen in the NHL today. He has been given the "C" and will be expected to lead this team on the ice and off. He plays a lot of minutes against the other team's best players, and is used in all situations. He also has one of the hardest shots in the NHL, and is deadly from the point on the power play. Like Rick Nash, he is a guy that I would not hesitate to trade for if I had a chance as an NHL GM. I think that if things go his way this year, he will be a finalist for the Norris Trophy at the end of the season.
Player With Something to Prove: Honestly, I wasn't sure who to put here. My gut reaction was to go with Kostitsyn, but that's a given. For me, if I'm a Predators fan, I'm watching Matthew Lombardi very closely. He was brought in to give the Preds a legitimate scoring threat at center beyond Steve Sullivan, and he will be replacing former captain and longer-term Predator Jason Arnott. Arnott was let go because he could not deliver when it counted, and Lombardi will be expected to provide consistent offense and chip in at key times. He fits more in the system that the Preds employ, which is based more on speed than size up front. However, last year saw him put up a career high in points with 53, and he will be expected to at least duplicate that, if not surpass it.
Why They Can Win the Division: A lot of people tend to overlook the Predators year in and year out, and I think they enjoy the underdog label. However, this is a team that finished with 100 points last year, including 47 wins. They only finished 2 points behind the Wings last year, and this young team should only get better. It would be a mistake to underestimate them, as they have the goaltending and defense to keep them in games. Plus, you can never count out a Barry Trotz-coached team.
Why They Won't Win the Division: For the improvements the Preds made up front, this is still a young team that does not have a ton of offensive depth. The acquisitions of Lombardi and Kostitsyn should help them in this regard, but beyond that there is not a lot of proven talent there. Rinne could be subject to a sophomore slump as well, and if he falters the Preds are in trouble. Overall I just don't see them having the horses to compete with the Wings and Hawks.
My Prediction: This team is going to be good; perhaps better than people expect. I know we make fun of Bubba a lot, but they are returning a lot of their younger players that didn't tear up the league last year, but who performed adequately. If they can get any improvement out of those guys, they will be in good shape. I like the arrival of Lombardi, but Kostitsyn is going to have to show a commitment level that was not displayed in Montreal. I think the departure of Dan Ellis is going to hurt them at times, as there is not a dependable backup on the team right now that the Preds could count on should Rinne falter. However, given their previous history, that backup will end up being next year's starter anyway. The defense is very good, and as I said, look for Shea Weber to make a big impact not only on the Predators but also on the NHL as a whole. I think another 100 point season is not out of the question, and they will once again finish in the middle of the conference. I also predict that at some point in the season, I will yell "shut the fuck up with those damn whistles!" at the TV.
Know Thy Enemy - St Louis Blues
It's September today, which means that school is either starting or has already begun; the leaves will start to change soon; the weather will be getting a little cooler; and training camps open in just a couple of weeks. We are so close to the beginning of the season, but there are still rosters to set and lines to tweak. Today we will be checking out another division rival, but first a few notes on some developments yesterday.
I think we all heard that Niklas Kronwall had some surgery on his knee. Now, reports of surgery are normally never good, but this seems to have been just a scope of the knee, which in the grand scheme of things is very minor. I know some people were concerned he waited this long, but if the pain was more of a nuisance than a hindrance, then he was probably just trying to continue with conservative treatment before going under the knife. I have no doubts the team was not only aware of his issues but sanctioned the treatment prior to his actually having surgery. It sounds like the recovery won't be that bad, and he should be good to go soon.
The other big news from yesterday is that Chris Chelios (finally) announced his official retirement to accept a front office position as the Advisor to Hockey Operations. I know that I have spoken about Chelios' impact on the team before, and that is still true today. I find it a little funny that a guy who was born in Chicago and played for the Hawks is so beloved in Detroit. But, he had a lot to do with the Wings winning 2 Cups in his time here, and even if his on-ice contributions had waned in the last couple of years, he was still an important role model and teacher in the dressing room. I'm glad we were able to corral him into his new position, as I think he will do wonders in helping some of the young defensemen develop and grow.
We continue our look at the other 29 teams in the NHL, and today we head south on I-55 to check out a rivalry that has been fairly one-sided for the last 15 years.
St Louis Blues
Additions: Jaroslav Halak; Vladimir Sobotka; Dave Scatchard; Stefan Della Rovere; Dean Aresene; Brennan Evans
Departures: Keith Tkachuk; Darryl Sydor; Paul Kariya; Lars Eller; Ian Schultz; Chris Mason; Mike Weaver; DJ King
Much like the Blue Jackets, the Blues followed up a playoff appearance in 2008-09 with a very disappointing 2009-10 season. The Blues had a poor start to the season (minus the two wins against the Wings in Sweden), and fared very poorly on home ice throughout most of the season. A late push (similar to 2008-09) was not enough to get the Blues back into the playoffs, but did leave the team with at least a sense of optimism headed into this season. Let's take a look at the team.
Offense: The Blues don't boast a true "superstar" like some of the other teams in the division, but they do have a number of guys capable of putting up decent totals. Their offense relies a lot on Brad Boyes, who is a 40-goal scorer in the NHL. However, Boyes (a former teammate of my brother) has seen his goal totals decline over the past couple of seasons, and he will be looking to bounce back in a big way this season. The Blues do have a number of other players who will be looking to boost their offensive numbers this season. David Backes is a centerman who is a big presence and can score goals in the tough areas. David Perron is a very talented winger with some good hands, although he is still learning the NHL game. TJ Oshie and Patrick Berglund will both be looking to get back to their rookie seasons where they really excelled. Andy McDonald is the old man of the group, and it is hoped that he will be able to get Boyes going. The Blues lost Tkachuk and Kariya, so some of their offense has left them, and it will be up to the young players to step and up and fill their shoes. The Blues also lost one of their top prospects (Lars Eller) in the trade for Jaroslav Halak, but his impact probably would have been minimal this season. Overall, this was a team that scored 218 goals last season, 17th in the NHL. One area where the Blues are going to look to improve is on the power play, where they were under 17% for the season. The Blues are going to look to get some added offense from the blueline as well. Right now, Erik Johnson is their quarterback on the defense, but he only had 39 points last year. The Blues are hoping that their top prospect, Alex Pietrangelo, will make the team and contribute some offense during his rookie season.
Defense: The Blues have a good stable of defensemen led by Johnson, the former #1 overall pick. He missed 2008-09 after a freak accident with a golf cart (insert "golfing because the team sucks" joke here), and had a nice season last year. He will be looking to continue his development on the top pair. The Blues have resident dickhead Barret Jackman, who is a mean, physical defenseman who tends to cross the line legally. He's also the idiot that beat out Zetterberg for the Calder in 2006, but I think it's very obvious who has had the better career to this point. Roman Polak is also another steady defenseman, and logged a lot of important minutes for the Blues last year in a shut-down role. The captain of the team is Eric Brewer, but he has really struggled with injuries the last few years, and his play seems to have really taken a nosedive. Pietrangelo is expected to make the team and start his career with the Blues this season, and it will be interesting to see what type of impact he has on the team. Up front, the Blues use Jay McClement in a checking role, and he has BJ Crombeen on his line to add some grit. This is a good group, and should not be overlooked. The Blues finished 12th overall in team defense, so they are not far off from being seen as one of the real strong defensive teams in the league. A large part of that was due to their #1 ranked penalty killing unit, which had an 86% success rate. If the Blues can get even close to that number again, they will once again be a very hard team to score against.
Goaltending: The Blues really upgraded when they traded for Jaroslav Halak earlier this summer. I think we are all aware of the stellar run he went on with the Canadiens last spring, and while I don't think it's possible for him to keep up that pace of play for an 82 game season, the Blues are banking on him giving them 50-60 quality starts this season. Goaltending was a bit of a problem last year, not in terms of the numbers, but in terms of situational play. I heard more than one Blues fan last year comment on the fact that Mason would be prone to giving up a bad goal at a real inopportune time, and this cost them some much needed points. Halak gives the Blues a little stability and a huge upside for the future. If he can replicate the numbers that Mason put up last year, I think Blues fans will be happy. However, I know that they are expecting bigger things from him, and with good reason. Should Halak have a tough stretch, the Blues can turn to Ty Conklin, a man that all Wing fans are very familiar with. Conks is one of the better backup goalies in the NHL, as evidenced by the fact he kept the Wings in the race during 2008-09 when Osgood was having his issues. He's a solid goalie that the Blues can count on should they need to switch things up or if Halak is struggling. Combined with their strong team defense, the Blues should not be giving up a lot of goals next season.
Coaching: Like the Blue Jackets, the Blues fired their coach midway through last season, and brought up the coach of their AHL affiliate, Davis Payne. He really helped turn the Blues around, and his record was 23-15-4 after he took over, including a very strong finish to the season. Given the youth of the Blues, he seems like the perfect coach to be in charge, as he is used to working with younger, developing players. Given the Blues accomplishments on defense last year, it's very obvious that he stresses accountability and hard work. Like Scott Arniel, I am not overly familiar with Payne, but looking at their record before and after he took over, it sure looks like they responded positively to him. Whether that carries over to this season remains to be seen, but the Blues obviously believe he is the guy who will lead them back to the playoffs.
Player to Watch: It has to be Halak. The Blues believe that he is the goalie that will get them back into the playoffs since they traded away their best prospect. I think he's going to be good this season, but if Blues fans are expecting the torrid pace that he set in April/May during the Habs' run, I think they will be disappointed. I don't think that Halak is the "make-or-break" player for the Blues, because they have offensive issues to work out. But if he falters during the season and is unable to play well, the Blues could once again find themselves on the outside looking in.
Player with Something to Prove: I like Brad Boyes a lot, especially since I kind of know him from playing with my brother (and by "kind of know him" I mean that I said hi to him once and he nodded at me). He is 2 years removed from a 40 goal season, and a lot was expected of him last year. Unfortunately for him, his goal total fell off a cliff, and he needs to get back to his pace from a couple of years ago since the Blues have lost Tkachuk and Kariya. This is a very young team, and at 28, Boyes is one of the veterans on the team. If the Blues want any chance of getting back to the playoffs, Boyes is going to have to become a consistent scoring threat again.
Why They Can Win the Division: They have a very good defense and now should have consistent goaltending. With these facets of their game being solid, the Blues can focus on improving their offense. Defense and goaltending will keep the Blues in a lot of games, and should allow them to rack up points. However, I just don't see them as true contenders - yet.
Why They Won't Win the Division: While I believe the Blues have upgraded in net, they still have something to prove on offense. Losing Tkachuk and Kariya are going to be big blows, especially since Tkachuk had a good season last year. Their defense and goaltending may be pretty good, but I don't think they have the offense to keep up with the Wings and Hawks.
My Prediction: The Blues are still a few years away from being true contenders. However, this season, they are going to be very hard to play against. They have one of the better defensive corps in the division, and Halak gives them a legitimate #1 goalie. They will continue to have problems scoring goals, but the potential is there for an offensive outburst. If the young forwards can get back to playing the way they did in 2008-09, a playoff appearance is not entirely out of the question. This is also a very young team, and under a new coach, this could be the start of their ascension in the division and the conference. They are going to be one of the most competitive teams in the conference this year, but I am just not sure that they have the talent to really contend for anything beyond a playoff spot and first round exit.
I think we all heard that Niklas Kronwall had some surgery on his knee. Now, reports of surgery are normally never good, but this seems to have been just a scope of the knee, which in the grand scheme of things is very minor. I know some people were concerned he waited this long, but if the pain was more of a nuisance than a hindrance, then he was probably just trying to continue with conservative treatment before going under the knife. I have no doubts the team was not only aware of his issues but sanctioned the treatment prior to his actually having surgery. It sounds like the recovery won't be that bad, and he should be good to go soon.
The other big news from yesterday is that Chris Chelios (finally) announced his official retirement to accept a front office position as the Advisor to Hockey Operations. I know that I have spoken about Chelios' impact on the team before, and that is still true today. I find it a little funny that a guy who was born in Chicago and played for the Hawks is so beloved in Detroit. But, he had a lot to do with the Wings winning 2 Cups in his time here, and even if his on-ice contributions had waned in the last couple of years, he was still an important role model and teacher in the dressing room. I'm glad we were able to corral him into his new position, as I think he will do wonders in helping some of the young defensemen develop and grow.
We continue our look at the other 29 teams in the NHL, and today we head south on I-55 to check out a rivalry that has been fairly one-sided for the last 15 years.
St Louis Blues
Additions: Jaroslav Halak; Vladimir Sobotka; Dave Scatchard; Stefan Della Rovere; Dean Aresene; Brennan Evans
Departures: Keith Tkachuk; Darryl Sydor; Paul Kariya; Lars Eller; Ian Schultz; Chris Mason; Mike Weaver; DJ King
Much like the Blue Jackets, the Blues followed up a playoff appearance in 2008-09 with a very disappointing 2009-10 season. The Blues had a poor start to the season (minus the two wins against the Wings in Sweden), and fared very poorly on home ice throughout most of the season. A late push (similar to 2008-09) was not enough to get the Blues back into the playoffs, but did leave the team with at least a sense of optimism headed into this season. Let's take a look at the team.
Offense: The Blues don't boast a true "superstar" like some of the other teams in the division, but they do have a number of guys capable of putting up decent totals. Their offense relies a lot on Brad Boyes, who is a 40-goal scorer in the NHL. However, Boyes (a former teammate of my brother) has seen his goal totals decline over the past couple of seasons, and he will be looking to bounce back in a big way this season. The Blues do have a number of other players who will be looking to boost their offensive numbers this season. David Backes is a centerman who is a big presence and can score goals in the tough areas. David Perron is a very talented winger with some good hands, although he is still learning the NHL game. TJ Oshie and Patrick Berglund will both be looking to get back to their rookie seasons where they really excelled. Andy McDonald is the old man of the group, and it is hoped that he will be able to get Boyes going. The Blues lost Tkachuk and Kariya, so some of their offense has left them, and it will be up to the young players to step and up and fill their shoes. The Blues also lost one of their top prospects (Lars Eller) in the trade for Jaroslav Halak, but his impact probably would have been minimal this season. Overall, this was a team that scored 218 goals last season, 17th in the NHL. One area where the Blues are going to look to improve is on the power play, where they were under 17% for the season. The Blues are going to look to get some added offense from the blueline as well. Right now, Erik Johnson is their quarterback on the defense, but he only had 39 points last year. The Blues are hoping that their top prospect, Alex Pietrangelo, will make the team and contribute some offense during his rookie season.
Defense: The Blues have a good stable of defensemen led by Johnson, the former #1 overall pick. He missed 2008-09 after a freak accident with a golf cart (insert "golfing because the team sucks" joke here), and had a nice season last year. He will be looking to continue his development on the top pair. The Blues have resident dickhead Barret Jackman, who is a mean, physical defenseman who tends to cross the line legally. He's also the idiot that beat out Zetterberg for the Calder in 2006, but I think it's very obvious who has had the better career to this point. Roman Polak is also another steady defenseman, and logged a lot of important minutes for the Blues last year in a shut-down role. The captain of the team is Eric Brewer, but he has really struggled with injuries the last few years, and his play seems to have really taken a nosedive. Pietrangelo is expected to make the team and start his career with the Blues this season, and it will be interesting to see what type of impact he has on the team. Up front, the Blues use Jay McClement in a checking role, and he has BJ Crombeen on his line to add some grit. This is a good group, and should not be overlooked. The Blues finished 12th overall in team defense, so they are not far off from being seen as one of the real strong defensive teams in the league. A large part of that was due to their #1 ranked penalty killing unit, which had an 86% success rate. If the Blues can get even close to that number again, they will once again be a very hard team to score against.
Goaltending: The Blues really upgraded when they traded for Jaroslav Halak earlier this summer. I think we are all aware of the stellar run he went on with the Canadiens last spring, and while I don't think it's possible for him to keep up that pace of play for an 82 game season, the Blues are banking on him giving them 50-60 quality starts this season. Goaltending was a bit of a problem last year, not in terms of the numbers, but in terms of situational play. I heard more than one Blues fan last year comment on the fact that Mason would be prone to giving up a bad goal at a real inopportune time, and this cost them some much needed points. Halak gives the Blues a little stability and a huge upside for the future. If he can replicate the numbers that Mason put up last year, I think Blues fans will be happy. However, I know that they are expecting bigger things from him, and with good reason. Should Halak have a tough stretch, the Blues can turn to Ty Conklin, a man that all Wing fans are very familiar with. Conks is one of the better backup goalies in the NHL, as evidenced by the fact he kept the Wings in the race during 2008-09 when Osgood was having his issues. He's a solid goalie that the Blues can count on should they need to switch things up or if Halak is struggling. Combined with their strong team defense, the Blues should not be giving up a lot of goals next season.
Coaching: Like the Blue Jackets, the Blues fired their coach midway through last season, and brought up the coach of their AHL affiliate, Davis Payne. He really helped turn the Blues around, and his record was 23-15-4 after he took over, including a very strong finish to the season. Given the youth of the Blues, he seems like the perfect coach to be in charge, as he is used to working with younger, developing players. Given the Blues accomplishments on defense last year, it's very obvious that he stresses accountability and hard work. Like Scott Arniel, I am not overly familiar with Payne, but looking at their record before and after he took over, it sure looks like they responded positively to him. Whether that carries over to this season remains to be seen, but the Blues obviously believe he is the guy who will lead them back to the playoffs.
Player to Watch: It has to be Halak. The Blues believe that he is the goalie that will get them back into the playoffs since they traded away their best prospect. I think he's going to be good this season, but if Blues fans are expecting the torrid pace that he set in April/May during the Habs' run, I think they will be disappointed. I don't think that Halak is the "make-or-break" player for the Blues, because they have offensive issues to work out. But if he falters during the season and is unable to play well, the Blues could once again find themselves on the outside looking in.
Player with Something to Prove: I like Brad Boyes a lot, especially since I kind of know him from playing with my brother (and by "kind of know him" I mean that I said hi to him once and he nodded at me). He is 2 years removed from a 40 goal season, and a lot was expected of him last year. Unfortunately for him, his goal total fell off a cliff, and he needs to get back to his pace from a couple of years ago since the Blues have lost Tkachuk and Kariya. This is a very young team, and at 28, Boyes is one of the veterans on the team. If the Blues want any chance of getting back to the playoffs, Boyes is going to have to become a consistent scoring threat again.
Why They Can Win the Division: They have a very good defense and now should have consistent goaltending. With these facets of their game being solid, the Blues can focus on improving their offense. Defense and goaltending will keep the Blues in a lot of games, and should allow them to rack up points. However, I just don't see them as true contenders - yet.
Why They Won't Win the Division: While I believe the Blues have upgraded in net, they still have something to prove on offense. Losing Tkachuk and Kariya are going to be big blows, especially since Tkachuk had a good season last year. Their defense and goaltending may be pretty good, but I don't think they have the offense to keep up with the Wings and Hawks.
My Prediction: The Blues are still a few years away from being true contenders. However, this season, they are going to be very hard to play against. They have one of the better defensive corps in the division, and Halak gives them a legitimate #1 goalie. They will continue to have problems scoring goals, but the potential is there for an offensive outburst. If the young forwards can get back to playing the way they did in 2008-09, a playoff appearance is not entirely out of the question. This is also a very young team, and under a new coach, this could be the start of their ascension in the division and the conference. They are going to be one of the most competitive teams in the conference this year, but I am just not sure that they have the talent to really contend for anything beyond a playoff spot and first round exit.
Labels:
Central Division,
Red Wings,
Season Preview,
St Louis Blues
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